The first, cost cutting, is an obvious consideration because of the flat coal price and a fresh forecast from the investment bank, Goldman Sachs, that the price outlook remains flat.

Under this scenario, Shenhua offloads an asset in the form of the undeveloped Watermark project in the Gunnedah Basin of New South Wales to Whitehaven, taking a parcel of shares in exchange, while saving costs through the integration of the facilities of both companies.

The second possibility in what’s being reported, deck clearing, is a little less obvious but if it is true, Shenhua has decided Watermark is a project deal “too far” and reflects a view in the Chinese company that it needs to trim back its expansion ambitions.

This second scenario, like the first, is probably not particularly palatable for Whitehaven though it does have long-term appeal in providing a future development option beyond the focus on the Maules Creek project.

The third, and most Machiavellian, is that a deal is being hatched to create an exit route for embattled entrepreneur and major Whitehaven shareholder Nathan Tinkler – and his bankers.

Of course, it is always possible that someone in Hong Kong has decided that it is time to bring down the curtain on what has been a messy affair involving Whitehaven and Tinkler and that means all three possibilities mesh together quite comfortably.

What could be happening is that the people who really control the Whitehaven situation, coal customers and bankers, are concerned the company is being destabilised by uncertainty over its ownership and that could affect future supplies of coal and future profits.

The twin causes of this instability are the coal-price crash and Tinkler being caught “mid deal” with his plans to take full control of Whitehaven derailed by the fall in the coal price.

Whatever the cause, the facts are that Whitehaven has a very unhappy major shareholder who appears to be “underwater” in terms of what he owes his bankers versus the value of his 19.4% stake in Whitehaven.

The numbers being reported are that Tinkler’s debts stand at about $US700 million (and will be growing daily as interest accrues).

Whereas his shares in Whitehaven, standing as security for those loans, are worth around $683 million – a $17 million shortfall based on the recent Whitehaven share price of $3.47 a share.

The shortfall was much bigger a few weeks ago when Whitehaven traded down to its 12-month low of $2.70.

At that level, Tinkler’s stake in Whitehaven was worth $531 million, leaving a notional “hole” in the deal for the bankers to consider of $169 million.

At the Whitehaven share price low point The Hog was reminded of a famous saying about debts: “If you owe the bank $1 million the bank owns you. If you owe the bank $100 million, you own the bank.”

In other words, the fall in coal prices, plus reminders such as that from Goldman Sachs last week that the recent price recovery “is capped” and that both thermal and metallurgical coal have limited prospects for rising much further in 2013, caused the bankers to act.

That action, being orchestrated somewhere off centre stage, can probably be seen in the curious first encounter of Shenhua and Whitehaven, which consists of an unacceptable proposal to sell Watermark, followed by a suggestion that Shenhua make a full takeover bid – at a price yet to be determined.

If this was a game of darts someone on the sidelines would now be calling out “game on” because what has just happened is akin to a preliminary skirmish that signals to the market that a deal is being hatched and now is a good time to get ready for action.

What that action entails remains to be seen but it’s a reasonable assumption Shenhua will make the full bid suggested by Whitehaven in what might be seen as an invitation too good to refuse – especially as the unseen bankers have already flagged a willingness on the part of Tinkler to accept a price above, say, $3.70 – a price which extinguishes his debts.

As the for $4.80 price being suggested by investment analysts, that would almost certainly have Tinkler heading for the exits with a small pot to stake his next deal but perhaps too high for Shenhua.

In any event, what we seem to talking about is merely a question of price because everyone involved wants a deal to happen and for the game to end, perhaps with everyone saving face.