At a press briefing at NMA’s Washington DC headquarters, chief executive officer Hal Quinn said the bright projections were due to ”clear improvements” in key US economic sectors, as well as global demand for mined products, particularly in developing economies.
“While we see continued slow growth in the overall US GDP and another slight contraction in Europe, projected increases in domestic new-home construction and automobile sales forecast to reach 15.3 million in 2013 are buoying demand for copper, palladium, molybdenum and other metals that are vital to these sectors,” he said.
Quinn spoke to US copper and iron ore, both of which will see significant benefits this year, with the latter seeing the positive outcomes of infrastructure projects and stimulus spending in China.
Additionally, he noted, gold demand was expected to remain relatively strong because of continued financial uncertainty, central bank purchases of gold for diversification and ongoing domestic and international monetary policies.
“Coal is on track to become the world's primary energy source – surpassing oil – by 2015, according to Wood McKenzie, two years ahead of the International Energy Agency's current estimate,” Quinn said.
He said in the US, coal's role in meeting electricity demand would jump by about 45 million tons versus 2012 levels, while total domestic consumption would also rise by 50Mt on slight upticks in the US economy, cooler weather and a notable increase in natural gas prices.
“Demand for coal in Europe has increased – particularly in Germany and Britain – in response to higher gas prices,” he said.
“Demand for coal throughout Asia for electricity and steel production contributes to a robust US coal export forecast of 111 million tons in 2013.”
Considering the improved production and demand conditions expected to come this year, the executive said the NMA was estimating total US coal production of 1.016Bt in 2013, a figure that is more optimistic than the short-term forecast recently released by the US Information Administration.
“Longer-term, NMA expects US coal to benefit from recent and planned construction of higher efficiency coal-based power plants with higher output rates and lower emissions,” Quinn said.
“The remaining coal fleet will, on average, be larger, more efficient and run at higher capacity – recovering at least 100 million tons of US coal production lost to retirements of older plants.”
The NMA, which has membership companies from across the country, said it was continuing to see mine safety and health improvements nationwide.
In addition, 2012 ended as the second safest in terms of mining fatalities.
However, Quinn pointed out, it was still well short of the group’s goal of eliminating fatalities and reducing the injury rate by 50% by 2015 – an initiative known as the CORESafety and health management system.
What limited the potential of US mining as a driver of providing reliable materials and affordable and vital energy was public policy challenges, he noted.
“Inefficient and unpredictable permitting processes thwart investments that provide high-paying jobs and added value throughout the chain of production,” he said.
“Regulations that needlessly limit our energy options by halting the construction in the US of new advanced coal plants that can serve as the platforms for cleaner coal technologies worldwide are a failure of ambition and policy.
“If the US wants to compete with the world's fastest growing economies and remain in the forefront of technological innovations, we must address these critical shortcomings.”
