The man doing the revealing at the London-based but African-entrenched miner will be Anglo’s freshly-appointed chief executive, Mark Cutifani, a no-nonsense Australian-born and trained mining engineer who is 114 days into the job.
Since taking over what is widely-regarded as the most difficult assignment among the big five globally diversified miners (BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Vale and Glencore Xstrata are the other four) Cutifani has been confronted by series of inherited problems.
Profits from metallurgical coal assets in Australia and from thermal coal mines in South Africa and Colombia have collapsed, though not as badly as Anglo’s platinum business. Last year that plunged from profit to loss as labour unrest turned deadly.
A disastrous cost blow-out on a Brazilian iron ore development has further eroded confidence in the company, and was a factor in the recruitment of Cutifani from Anglo Gold Ashanti, a business which once operated as Anglo American’s gold division.
That glimpse into the history of Anglo, a company that used to dominate all aspects of the South Africa economy, is an indication of the complexity of the challenge facing Cutifani. He is trying to plot a new course for a company that has been trying for 20 years to make a clean break from its past.
What investors, Anglo workers, and South African politicians and union organisers want to hear from Cutifani as he delivers his maiden set of financial numbers is whether it will be steady-as-she-goes or whether a major change in direction is planned.
One view of the challenge facing the 54 year-old Cutifani is that he could make life easy for himself by not rocking the Anglo boat but to sail on with an unchanged corporate structure and asset base.
Another view is that without a radical change Anglo is doomed to become takeover fodder for a more determined owner with no concern about the historical baggage that sits like dead-weight in the company’s balance sheet.
The potential future owner with the greatest potential to separate Anglo from its roots and achieve a radical overhaul of its business units is Glencore Xstrata, a deal driven organisation that has previously “run a ruler” over Anglo with particular interest in its iron ore, copper and coal.
It is the challenge of walking a line between past and future that will be occupying Cutifani as he drafts his 21st century vision for the (almost) 100-year old Anglo American group.
What, for example, should Cutifani do with the company’s coal assets that are being buffeted by low prices, over-supplied markets and government “climate pressure” on all forms of carbon emissions?
In Australia, Anglo ranks as the country’s second biggest producer of metallurgical coal but is being squeezed by falling production (down 9% in the June quarter) and has been quietly trimming its workforce.
Thermal coal output in South Africa and Colombia has done a little better (down 5%) but the outlook for production and profits is clouded.
Closer to its historic home in South Africa and there is not much more joy for Anglo as it contemplates the challenge of rising costs and the threat of ongoing industrial unrest in its platinum, iron ore and manganese business units.
Diamonds, the glamour part of the Anglo portfolio, are performing well but remain a relatively small profit contributor for the group.
So, what will Cutifani do?
Opt for the “do little” solution and occupy the chief executive’s chair until he shuffles off at the age of 60 after six years at the helm?
Not likely is The Hogs answer to that question.
Or, will he chase the big prize? That involves a radical overhaul of a business in desperate need of a clean break between its past and its future, and reduced reliance on exposure to South Africa and its ever-present economic uncertainties, unpredictable government, and intransigent racial and labour relations problems.
If Cutifani does go for the restructuring option, which he probably has to or face a Glencore Xstrata raid, then another series of question pop up, including whether a fresh attempt will be made to grow Anglo in more stable regions such as North America, with its fast-recovering economies, and Australia with its exposure to Asia’s vast opportunities.
Whatever the plan, Anglo under Cutifani is entering a period of change that it can either manage itself – or have it managed by outside forces.