Leading the latest round of cuts, which have already cost an estimated 9000 workers their jobs in the coal sector, were Xstrata and Rio Tinto which both eliminated another 100 jobs.
Both blamed low coal prices, the high Australian dollar and high operating costs in Australia for their cost cuts which are not expected to be the last in the industry.
However, two of the big players in the coal industry chose a conventional solution to a problem which comes around in every commodity price cycle (hands up anyone who remembers the promised super cycle of perpetually high prices), while a smaller player opted for something different.
New Hope Corporation, a business once unkindly dubbed by its major shareholder as “No Hope”, said it would accelerate its policy of diversifying away from its pure-coal base by investing in other forms of energy, particularly increased oil production either from conventional sources or from coal-to-liquids technology.
At first glance it seems easy to dismiss the New Hope strategy as doomed to fail, if only because very few mining companies have successfully operated in both the mining and oil camps.
BHP Billiton is one of those rare exceptions but other miners such as Rio Tinto have dabbled in oil and failed, while even more oil companies, such as Shell and BP, have dabbled in coal and failed.
New Hope’s approach is different, with its management team outlining what could be a win-win strategy that has, as its first target, a liquids policy designed to effectively become self-sufficient in diesel and petroleum for its mining fleet, while a secondary target is to grow a liquids-producing energy division.
So far, the New Hope liquids approach to coal mining has not made much of a splash, with few signs of anyone else following the company on its path of a combined solid and liquid future – not that New Hope chief executive officer Robert Neale appears concerned about being a trailblazer.
In a presentation to analysts on Tuesday, which accompanied a reasonable strong half-year profit result in a difficult coal market, Neale described a move into oil and gas as a “natural hedge” against rising fuel costs for New Hope’s mine fleet.
These fuel costs are proving to be a major part of the cost squeeze confronting all coal producers.
Chasing oil production as a cost-offset was one of the reasons behind New Hope’s acquisition last year of the small Queensland oil producer, Bridgeport. This was followed by an increased oil and gas exploration program on the company’s tenements as a way of boosting production from a current 6000 barrels of crude oil a month.
As well as investing directly in oil exploration and production, New Hope is also developing a coal-to-liquids technology aimed at producing a combination of electric power and diesel fuel.
It is not easy to criticise New Hope’s “go for liquids” approach to managing the crisis gripping the coal sector, just as it is not easy to criticise Xstrata and Rio Tinto for adopting a conventional cost-slashing approach to the common problems of low coal prices and high costs.
Perhaps both sides will get it right but history and events in the world of energy liquids are not in New Hope’s corner.
Firstly, there is the history of coal companies not fully understanding the technology and commercial aspects of liquid fuels.
New Hope can reply to that comment by pointing to a very fat profit ($326 million) from an investment in coal seam gas company Arrow Energy in the 2010 CSG stampede.
Secondly, there is the present (and future) reality of liquid fuels not being in short supply despite the claims of the Peak Oil argument, which has hit a major snag in the form of rising gas and oil production from previously impermeable and non-commercial beds of shale and other “tight” rocks in the US.
Australia, despite Neale’s comments about an energy deficiency and a lack of production and refining capacity, is tracking the US shale revolution.
What is seen today will not be the situation tomorrow, thanks to the first signs of a shale oil and gas stampede in central Australia and along the west coast.
Even Saudi Arabia, home to the world’s biggest pools of conventional oil, is joining the shale hunt.
That points to the price of oil (as well as coal) being under pressure from what looks increasingly like a global energy glut, rather than the shortage predicted by Peak Oil theorists.
It might be rude of The Hog to suggest to Neale that New Hope ought to stick to what it knows best, which is cost-efficient coal mining.
However, that could be the best course rather than trying to diversify into a business that has fooled coal miners in previous years.