In an updated Annual Energy Outlook 2012 report the agency says US consumption to 2025 is 20 quadrillion British thermal units, or quads. That is down 3% from its January forecast and a drop of more than 10% from last year’s projection for that date of 22.6 quads.
Coal consumption for 2035 is projected to be 21.15 quads, down from its January estimation of 21.6 quads. In 2011, the EIA estimated 2035’s totals to be much higher at 24.3 quads.
It says coal production in America will continue to decline through 2015, then rebound parallel with the growth of electricity demand and a rise in natural gas prices. At the same time, exports will rise, as will the demand for the use of coal for synthetic liquids.
While the US western coalfields and interior region will have production increases, coal in Appalachia, after falling through 2020, is projected to be nearly stagnant.
“Appalachian coal production declines substantially from current levels as coal produced from the extensively mined, higher cost reserves of central Appalachia is supplanted by lower cost coal from other supply regions,” the EIA says in its updated report.
“An expected increase in production from the northern part of the Appalachia basin, however, moderates the overall production decline in Appalachia.”
EIA added that higher-than-average pricing in the area will continue amid declines in productivity as well as a projected shift to coking coal of a higher value.
“Coal remains the dominant source of electricity generation in the [report], with a 38 per cent share of total generation in 2035, but that is down from shares of 45 per cent in 2010 and nearly 50 per cent in 2005,” the EIA says.
The reasons for the change have already been well publicized.
“The decrease in coal’s share of total generation is offset primarily by increases in the shares of natural gas and renewables,” officials said.
“Key factors contributing to the shift away from coal are sustained low natural gas prices, higher coal prices, slow growth in electricity demand, and the implementation of mercury and air toxics standards and cross-state air pollution rules. These factors influence how existing plants are used, which plants are retired, and what types of new plants are built.”
In its forecast, the EIA says 49 gigawatts of coal-fired power plant capacity will likely be retired through 2035, with almost all of that coming within the next half decade.
The EIA put together alternative cases, too, that estimate a range of 34 gigawatts of retirements or as much as 70 gigawatts in a very low natural gas price regime – particularly if greenhouse gas emissions regulations now projected become law.
As such, carbon dioxide emissions from energy production are also expected to fall.
The agency said a slow economy and population growth paired with increased efficiency from and use of natural gas and renewables meant the emissions would come in below their 2005 level through the forecast period, specifically 5.8 billion metric tonnes in 2035, or about 4% under that year’s level of almost 6Bt.
Overall, the EIA said, fossil fuels are expected to decline from 83% of all US energy consumption in 2010 to about 77% in 2035.
