HOGSBACK

Hogsback asks whether our miners are on a slippery slope

ONE of Hogsback's favourite sports in the Winter Olympics is the slalom. But these days watching ...

Lou Caruana

Hogsback doesn’t pretend to be an expert at skiing, in fact the one time he attempted to take to the slopes he spent more time on his backside while watching kiddies pass him on the mountain while practicing snow ploughs.

That embarrassing situation notwithstanding, Hogsback can still appreciate the thrills of watching a top skier come down a slope on the slalom.

The speed of the sharp drops is exhilarating to all to behold.

But with no Winter Olympics planned for a while, Hogsback has found another form of amusement -- watching the shareprices of coal mining giants rapidly descend only to pop up again and for the process to be repeated.

The last four weeks in particular have been particularly entertaining.

There was a time when the great coal mining stalwarts like BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, and Peabody Energy would move in only one direction – up.

Those days are well and truly gone and it is anyone’s guess these days if their shareprices move plus or minus 10%.

To give you one example, Peabody Energy, which we are told is the world’s largest privately owned coal mining company, saw its shareprice drop from $US4.59 to $2.04 before rising to $6.39 on the NYSE over the last month.

Strange days indeed.

BHP Billiton, which was once considered as a proxy for the Australian economy, has also put on a dazzling display.

Its share price has dropped by 12% only to jump afterwards by 17% in the space of a month.

The not-as-big Australian has had its fair share of problems – especially in Brazil with the dam spill at the Samarco iron ore mine – but Hogsback wants to know: Does its shareprice pyrotechnic display really reflect its underlying value?

BHP Billiton CEO Andrew Mackenzie has staunchly defended the performance of the company’s coal business, which despite having a $US9 billion asset base last month reported a $342 million half yearly loss.

The company has never been producing more coal from its central Queensland coal fields.

He told an analysts’ meeting that each operation would be scrutinised in a bid to curtail operating costs, which have already been lowered by 17% to $US59 per tonne.

“Despite some very difficult conditions, they have been able to keep all of the operations cash positive,” he said.

That process may not be as exciting as watching the daily shareprice movements of some of the big miners, but it seems to Hogsback that real value is being made at the operational level and that could be more satisfying in the long term than the spills and thrills of down-hill racing.

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