IBISWorld forecasted a $2.5 billion hit to revenues from Queensland’s mining sector with lost coal shipments accounting for $2 billion by the end of this financial year.

The researcher expects spot coking coal prices to hit $US350-400 a tonne and thermal coal prices to test their 2008 highs.

While US coal companies are eager to make a supply response, New South Wales producers Gloucester Coal and Rio Tinto subsidiary Coal & Allied are also tipped to benefit.

Quick progress can be made in pumping water out of flooded open pits during good weather, but the wet season can run up to April each year.

One of the biggest impacts is the closure of the Blackwater line, although Queensland Rail National last week said it might be reopened on January 20.

Legal requirements add further delays to recovery efforts.

“Miners are also expected to be hampered by environmental regulations on water discharges from mine pits and legal issues arising from declaring force majeure on contracts and failing to adhere to strict health and safety standards,” IBISWorld said.

The researcher expects the mining and rail disruptions to also hurt contractors Leighton, Downer EDI and Macmahon.

White-collar workers returned to Brisbane’s central business district today, with several buildings still closed because of the flooding and subsequent power outages in the state’s capital last week.

Goldman Sachs estimates this flood has caused greater economic damage than the flood of 1974, which rose 1 metre higher, saying that the $200 million damage bill back then equated to about $1.5 billion in today’s dollars.

But a less obvious impact is to the $96.6 million worth of resources projects under consideration in the state.

“In a year where business investment was shaping up as the likely biggest contributor to economic growth, weather patterns throughout Australia have been particularly unhelpful in meeting investment intentions,” Goldman said.

“Coal expansion and the coal seam-LNG projects central in the 20 per cent surveyed rise in business investment in 2010-11 are predominantly based in Queensland.

“Wet building sites, an escalation in input costs and competition for labour for the rebuild in public infrastructure not only risk the delay of investment projects that have already been committed, they risk the delay in commitment of the next leg of investment projects required to keep investment at high levels.”

The investment bank forecast property and infrastructure damage in Queensland to total $2.8 billion, and the gross cost of the floods to reach 0.8% of the nation’s gross domestic product.

Goldman consequently predicted the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold off increases to official interest rates until late 2011.

Impact on BMA

BHP has committed to covering the impact of the weather only in its next quarterly production report, due out this Thursday.

But Platts reported there was a general consensus that customers “heavily reliant” on BMA “appeared” to have suffered the most from flood-related supply disruptions, with many unsure on the status of February and March shipments.

Broker UBS noted that production had returned to BMA’s Goonyella Riverside, Peak Downs and Saraji open cut mines, according to a BMA notice sent to two north Asian customers on January 7.

At this time there was no mining at BMA’s Norwich Park, Poitrel and Gregory mines, UBS said, while the Blackwater mine remained affected by the closure of the Blackwater rail line.