INTERNATIONAL COAL NEWS

Energy demand to grow 35%

ENERGY demand is expected to grow about 35% between 2010 and 2040, meaning all forms of energy wi...

Noel Dyson

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The company released its Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 last week.

In its forecast the oil major says more efficient energy-saving practices and technologies, increased use of less-carbon intensive fuels such as natural gas, nuclear and renewables as well as the continued development of technology advances to develop fresh energy sources will help meet that demand.

It says without efficiency gains, global energy demand could have risen more than 100%.

Anticipated population growth and a projected doubling of the global economy are driving that increased energy demand prediction.

The outlook anticipates oil and natural gas will meet about 60% of energy needs by 2040.

Liquid fuels such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil will remain the energy of choice for most types of transport because they offer a unique combination of affordability, portability and high energy intensity.

A 25% increase in oil demand is anticipated. That will be driven by increased commercial transport activity.

ExxonMobil predicts deep-water production technology advances, the development of oil sands and tight oil will help meet that demand.

Its outlook says that about 65% of the world’s recoverable crude and condensate resource will have yet to be produced by 2040.

Natural gas will continue to be the fastest-growing major fuel sources as demand for it grows by about 65%.

The fuel is projected to account for more than one quarter of all global energy needs by 2040 and expected to overtake coal as the largest source of electricity.

Through most of the outlook period, more than half of the growth in unconventional natural gas supply will be in North America.

Nuclear energy will enjoy solid growth despite some countries scaling back their nuclear expansion plans following the 2011 Fukushima incident in Japan.

The outlook predicts growth will be led by the Asia Pacific region, where nuclear output is projected to increase from 3% to total energy in 2010 to almost 9% by 2040.

Renewable energy supplies – including traditional biomass, hydro and geothermal as well as wind, solar and biofuels – will grow by nearly 60%. They are expected to make up about 4% of energy supplies in 2040, up from 1% in 2010.

Energy used for power generation will continue to be the largest component of global demand and is expected to grow by more than 50% by 2040. This will be driven by the improved living standards that come with urbanisation and rising incomes lead to increased household and industrial electricity consumption through wider penetration of electronics, appliances and other modern conveniences.

The growth reflects an expected 90% increase in electricity use led by developing countries where 1.3 billion people are without access to electricity.

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