Overall world energy consumption is projected to increase by 48% over the next three decades, led by strong increases in the developing world—especially in Asia.

Throughout the projection, the top three coal-consuming countries—China, the United States, and India—together account for more than 70% of the world’s coal use.

China currently accounts for almost half of the world’s coal consumption, but a slowing economy and plans to implement policies to address air pollution and climate change contribute to declining coal use in China in the later years of the projection.

Inclusion of the CPP substantially lowers coal use in the United States from the level projected in the IEO2016 Reference case. Of the world’s three largest coal consumers, only India is projected to increase coal use throughout the projection period.

IEO2016 presents updated projections for world energy markets through 2040. Outside of the United States, projections are based on current laws, regulations, and announced policies, where such indicators have historically been reliable guides.

For the United States, the projections are generally based on existing laws and regulations but do not include the effects of the recently finalized Clean Power Plan (CPP) regulations. Published EIA analysis of the proposed version of the CPP shows potential significant reductions in U.S. coal consumption and increases in U.S. renewable consumption.