With the price of European ICE benchmark Brent crude slipping this month to a new five year low of $US58.50/bbl (versus $115/bbl about six months ago) without significant macro-economic indicators providing cues, many have questioned OPEC’s role and intent in guiding global crude prices.

The OPEC meeting late last month provided a unique glimpse on the various imperatives that govern member nations. While the meeting itself produced an agreement to not decrease output to stem the downward spiral of crude prices, it highlighted the divisions within the group.

While Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and UAE have the ability to withstand lower oil prices for a longer period of time others, such as Venezuela, are on the brink of an economic crisis and have sought Chinese largess to help with the recovery.

For observers, the main concern has been how much consensus is built into the OPEC policy agenda and, more importantly, the relative power Saudi Arabia has in decision making.

Experts say that while the organisation itself pursues a unified goal of not losing its market share, unanimity on how it is achieved is a far cry. This has led to speculations over whether Saudi Arabia, in particular, uses OPEC output goals as a “diplomatic tool”

Many wonder if lower oil prices have been carefully sought or if Saudi Arabia, despite being a swing producer, is unable to control the output and instead has chosen a laissez-faire policy.

While the kingdom might not have spurred the price slide, observers point out that it did not do anything to stop the fall.

However, Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi has rubbished suggestions that the kingdom sought weaker prices in order to destabilise Syria, Iran and Iraq.

In a newspaper interview al-Naimi attributed the falling oil prices to a range of factors including global economic slowdown, rising output from non-OPEC producers – specifically the shale revolution in the US – and commodity speculators.

Perhaps what explains Saudi Arabia’s OPEC position is the belief that if it had cut output it would have led to other producers boosting higher cost production, which would not have resulted in sustained higher prices.

That said Saudi Arabia, like other OPEC producers, has been massively affected by shale growth and the resulting supply glut. The only logical response would be to keep a lid on prices to curtail shale investments, which is what the Saudis have done.

In the absence of concrete proof to establish that OPEC policy is derived out of political motivation over economic reasoning is mere conspiracy theory. That sliding oil prices have taken a toll on so-called rogue states such as Syria, Iran and “militant-controlled” parts of Iraq is mere coincidence.

In the meantime, what the OPEC policy does to oil prices remains to be seen.