“Demand for NSW coal in Japan rose by 1.7% in 2013-14, demand in Korea rose 8.7%, and in Taiwan, demand rose by 14%,” the NSW Minerals Council said.

“China’s demand for NSW coal has increased by 22% over the last financial year, sustaining its position as the second largest market for the state’s coal exports.”

NSWMC CEO Stephen Galilee said it was encouraging to see demand rising despite more than 4000 job losses from the state’s coal industry over the last two years and a “broken” planning system.

“Steady growth in exports to our long-term markets of Japan, Korea and Taiwan combined with a strong increase in exports to the emerging market of China signal good news for the industry, provided we get the policy settings right here in NSW,” Galilee said.

“The NSW premier’s recent commitment to halve planning assessment timeframes for major mining projects will build on these positive export figures and help attract investment and create jobs in our state.”

Past performance is no guarantee

While the industry group noted that Chinese demand had increased from 1.1% of NSW coal exports to 23% in the 2013-2014 financial year, the Chinese government introduced a 6% import tariff on the commodity plus import-reducing coal quality restrictions in the subsequent September-October period.

By late November Macquarie Wealth Management noted that Chinese coal imports had fallen to levels not seen since high coal price times of 2011, and also blamed lower Chinese coal consumption and high inventories for this outcome.

“Chinese seaborne thermal coal imports, including lignite and Vietnamese anthracite, fell to their lowest level since April 2011 in October; a sign that the restrictions China has imposed on imports may be having an effect,” Macquarie Wealth Management said at the time.

“Imports fell to just 146 million tonnes per annum, down 14% month-on-month and substantially lower than the monthly average of 211Mtpa [from] Jan-Sep.”