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Amanda Tay, author of DW’s World LNG Market Forecast 2015-2019, said the global recession caused a slowdown in global LNG capex, but post-2012, alongside stronger confidence in the global economy and a growing appetite for energy, the industry started picking up and has piqued investors’ interest in LNG projects again.
“Events such as the shale gas revolution in North America and Japan’s emergency reliance on LNG, subsequent to the Fukushima incident, have all played and will play a part in shaping the LNG sector,” Tay said.
She added that while Australasia and Asia had dominated global LNG Capex in recent years, all the regions were expected to experience positive growth in capex over the next forecast period except for Australasia and the Middle East.
“With its ambitious plans to export LNG, DW expects North America to be a significant market player in the forecast period,” she said.
“Asia is set to slightly increase its market share to 32% of investments in the forecast period, largely from regasification/import projects in China, Indonesia and Japan, as a result of increasing appetite for energy.”
Liquefaction terminals will represent two-thirds of the total market reflecting a 90% growth compared to the last five years; while import terminal expenditure is forecast to represent a quarter of total global LNG expenditure, a 112% increase, with LNG carrier expenditure just 9% of global expenditure.
“In the next five years we can also expect to see increasing participation from Chinese shipyards in the LNG shipbuilding sector,” Tay said.
Around 100 LNG carriers are expected to be delivered globally during the forecast 2015-2019 with a total capex of $US23 billion.
“General confidence in the market and a robust line-up of LNG terminals point towards a promising LNG carrier shipbuilding industry,” Tay said.
“The observed increase in average price of carriers and increase in carrier capacities are expected to continue in the forecast period.”
DW’s report details LNG trends by region and facility type, supported by analysis and insight for strategy teams within shipping companies, contractors, shipbuilders, oil and gas operators, gas utilities and financial institutions. Essential reading for companies associated with the LNG industry and potential entrants.