China’s customs data shows the country imported 10.56 million tonnes of thermal coal in January, the second-highest amount after the 12.1Mt record set in December.

The fall from December was driven by a 1.4Mt cut to anthracite imports from Vietnam, but Macquarie says there are no signs that Chinese demand for imported coal is waning.

“This is unsurprising, however, given the cold weather, with the greater litmus test in the coming months following Chinese new year,” the bank said.

With annual thermal coal contract negotiations underway, the investment bank says there appears to be a downside risk to current Newcastle spot prices, which are more than $96/t.

“Contract prices of $100 per tonne are likely to be a bridge too far, although based on the latest reported developments in spot prices and reported negotiations it appears contracts for JFY10-11 will be settled at around $90 per tonne.”

For seaborne metallurgical coal, China imported 4.44Mt in January, up 24% from 3.58Mt in December.

This is a staggering 1643% year-on-year increase, although below the 5.37Mt imported in July 2009, Macquarie said.

“Imports from Mongolia were the strongest on record in the month at 853,000 tonnes.”

In December, Macquarie forecast the hard coking coal benchmark to hit $180/t.

Xstrata and Rio Tinto’s $70-72/t annual contracts with Japanese utility Chubu Electric last year were a 42-44% discount to premium thermal coal export prices of $125/t in 2008.

BMA’s $129/t premium coking coal benchmark with Nippon Steel last year was 57% lower than the record prices of $300/t set for the commodity in 2008.