That’s essentially what happened in Obama’s much-hyped State of the Union address this week, not that he actually said anything about coal, more because he didn’t say anything about coal, a point which deeply annoyed the US coal industry.

Before going too deeply into US events, a gentle reminder about what was said last week when The Hog suggested WoodMac had forgotten the capacity of the US coal industry to capture a big share of China’s demand for imported coal.

It seemed to this casual scribbler the changing nature of the US energy sector had the potential to unleash US coal miners as potent competitors for Australian coal and that is what other people are now seeing, including a Japanese shipping company.

Central to this theory of US coal switching its focus from domestic consumption to export potential is the rise of the natural gas sector in that country, thanks to the new-found ability to extract gas from previously impermeable beds of shale.

Obama agrees.

In his annual report on the health of the US economy, he singled out gas as a crucial element in reviving the country’s economy, noting how the country suddenly has a 100-year supply of gas and it will create 600,000 new jobs over the next 10 years.

About coal, not a peep, an omission designed to placate the domestic environmental lobby but also an omission which will cause US coal to realise if it wants to grow then exports will be the best route.

Daiichi Chuo Kisen Kaisha, a Japanese ship operator, agrees.

Two days before Obama’s speech (and two days after The Hog suggested more US coal was coming) Daiichi said it was expecting a boom in US coal exports.

Daiichi president Saburo Koide told an interviewer in Tokyo, “exports of coal from the US could easily double in the next three or four years”.

“We’ve already had several inquiries on shipping coal from there,” he said.

Hauling coal is big business for Daiichi which is also in the process of growing its bulk carrier fleet from 195 ships to 280 over the next four years.

As well as hauling US coal to Asia, Daiichi expects US coal to make its way to India and Brazil.

Essentially, management at a Japanese shipping company has identified the same change in the US energy industry The Hog spotted.

There is a switch underway from domestic to export thanks to the US preference for gas on the grounds of price and environmental pressure.

The price factor is a result of the gas glut which has slashed the cost of gas.

The environmental factor is a result of Obama’s government being keen to exhibit green credential, a point which is annoying the US coal industry.

Immediately after the president’s state of the union address, the coal lobby warned omitting coal was a big mistake because it remained a key part of the energy sector and would play a leading role in the future of electricity generation.

Coal lobby group The American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity chief executive Steve Miller said coal should be “front and centre” of energy policy.

“It is inconceivable that we can reach our shared national goals of creating jobs, rebuilding US manufacturing and keeping energy affordable for our families and businesses without domestically produced coal playing a central role,” Miller said.

No doubt Miller’s right but it will not change the view of the current US administration which has fallen in love with gas.

So, having digested this new information from the US and Japan, it appears the US is perfectly happy to see coal mining continue but it would prefer to see more of it exported and replaced by gas in the production of electricity.

The irony of the position is if the US administration’s position on coal being a major polluter is correct, all that will be achieved is the same amount of coal will be mined, it will then be exported to countries such as China, where pollution control measures are not nearly as strict as they are in the US.

There’s no point in getting into the pollution argument, though it is worth noting prevailing westerly winds mean China’s emissions will tend to blow across the Pacific – back to the US.

What is worth thinking about is the rise of the US as a coal exporter and the price at which its mines can sell coal given they have the luxury of the low-value currency – and that really might be something to worry about.