The bad news is that some of the smartest people in the banking world claim that coal will stay down for longer than was previously expected.

The net result is that the new crop of mine owners, including a few big-name “returnees” such as Nathan Tinkler and Barry Tudor, will be have to rely on cost controls to achieve their goals rather than enjoy the easy uplift that comes with a rising coal price.

First cab off the rank was Tudor, a former chief executive of Gloucester Coal and senior executive at Hong Kong-based commodity trader, Noble Group. His return entry point is Pembroke Resources, a company with a pile of cash that is on the hunt for coal mines.

Tudor’s return is being backed by US-based Denham Capital, a boutique financier that has been looking for a way into the Australian mining industry for the past year and has, significantly, chosen coal as its starting point.

Joining Tudor at Pembroke are a number of other former Gloucester executives, including chief operating officer Mark Sheldon and chief financial officer Craig Boyd.

Armed with $US200 million from Denham the former Gloucester team is looking for metallurgical coal targets.

Tinkler is doing things a little differently, which is probably what might be expected of the mercurial asset-trader who was best known in his former career as a man more than willing to use small assets as leverage for ever bigger deals – until a play on Whitehaven Coal came unstuck.

This time around Tinkler is showing his usual courage by going into the thermal coal business just as warning signs ring loudly about the dangers ahead of long-term thermal coal oversupply and weak prices.

The deal luring Tinkler back into Australian coal from his base in Singapore is the mothballed Wilkie Creek mine of US coal giant Peabody Energy.

Closed late last year because of low prices, high operating costs and unfriendly government regulations, including concern over the Australian government’s carbon tax, Wilkie Creek has the hallmarks of a bargain-basement buy.

Originally offered by Peabody with a price tag of between $500 million and $600 million as a going concern it failed to attract a bid with interested parties, including Tinkler’s comeback vehicle Bentley Resources, prepared to wait for the mine’s closure.

With Peabody forced to wear the closure costs, and the termination of about 120 workers, Bentley has been able to negotiate an entry price that Peabody puts at $US70 million, plus the assumption of rail, port and other obligations that appear to lift the full price to around the $A150 million Tinkler mentioned in interviews with Australian media.

Of the two “returns” Tinkler has a head start in that he has a mine. Tudor is looking, but obviously has deals in mind or Denham Capital would not have bankrolled his Pembroke Resources.

Watching the race between Tinkler and Tudor should amuse sideline observers such as The Hog for much of the next 12 months and while Tinkler has moved first – although he will be chewing up some time assisting New South Wales’ anti-corruption crusaders at hearings in Sydney – it is Tudor’s metallurgical coal target that could see him emerge the winner.

The problem for both men is that while today’s entry price into the coal game is cheaper than last year it is cheap for a reason – coal prices are in the cellar and are not expected to recover rapidly.

The latest warning on price came at the same time Tinkler and Tudor were celebrating their return moves with the US investment bank Citi tipping even tougher conditions for Australian mines from next year.

Citi’s view is based on a global oversupply of coal and a government squeeze on the building of coal-fired power stations, which has been especially tough in the US, but could soon become just as tough in China.

“In North America it is virtually impossible to build a new thermal coal power plant but now that [trend] has spread to China which is the largest [coal] consumer in the world,” Citi said.

Undeterred by the gloom of New York-based industry observers such as those at Citi the Australian coal sector’s entrepreneurs reckon there has rarely been a better time to be a buyer of discarded coal assets.

If people such as Tinkler and Tudor are right they will make fresh fortunes.

If Citi is right then we are all in trouble.