“We need rapid changes in the electricity and private transport sectors. Additionally, we need significant increases in energy efficiency in all sectors,” Statoil chief economist Eirik Waerness warned at the release of Statoil’s annual Energy Perspectives report.

Waerness added that how coal is used over the next few years will be decisive for future CO2 levels.

Depending on whether a strong or weak climate policy is pursued, emissions could rise or decrease by between 0.8% and 3.1%, respectively, by 2040.

It says global coal demand growth halted in 2014 for the first time in 25 years, and the preliminary data for 2015 suggests that the downward trend is continuing, largely thanks to China.

Statoil says that stagnant global demand is expected towards 2020, and then a slow decline of somewhat less than 1% per year on average towards 2040, particularly in industrialised nations, although it sees growth in India, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand.

Over the next quarter-decade, between 17 and 32 billion tonnes of CO2 could be thrown into the atmosphere annually.

EU member states have committed themselves to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% in comparison with 1990 levels, by 2020.

At the same time, energy efficiency needs to increase by 20%, as does renewable energy’s share of the market, Statoil said.

For 2030, the target for emission reduction is 40% and for renewables and efficiency it is 27%.

Statoil says EU members can only meet those targets by phasing out coal in the medium term, something a big coal producer like Poland is dead against, although the G7 leaders have signed up to the idea.

Germany is phasing out coal and nuclear within its borders, but it has basically moved its emissions to its neighbours. It is banking heavily on renewables and gas, backing proposals such as the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia.

Europe is looking at establishing a carbon price, likely pitched between $30-50 per tonne, which would incentivise the greater use of gas, which has half of the CO2 emissions of coal.

Statoil is the second largest supplier of natural gas in Europe, behind Russia with a 15% share.

Statoil expects oil will still play a role, with demand in 2040 likely to be between 78-116 million barrels of oil per day.

Gas demand in 2040 is expected to be between 3.5 and 4.74 trillion cubic metres compared to 3.5Bcm in 2013, with gas’ market share staying unchanged or slightly increasing in all scenarios.

Statoil said there is a significant need for new investments in both oil and gas in all scenarios, since production from existing reserves is not even close to keeping up with demand development.

New renewable sources of electricity, in particular solar and wind, are expected to grow significantly in importance, delivering between six and 17 times more electricity in 2040 than in 2013.

Global nuclear power generation was 10% lower in 2014 than in 2007. The decline was due mainly to the shut-down of all Japanese reactors. As a share of world total power generation, nuclear peaked in the early-mid 1990s at around 17.5%. By 2014 the share was 11%.

For the moment a total of 49 countries either have nuclear power plants or are in the process of acquiring them.

Of these, 31 share a total of 440 operative reactors, however this total includes 43 Japanese reactors that are offline and face an uncertain future. 16 countries have a total of 62 new reactors under construction.

A further eight countries without any previous experience with nuclear power are planning to build reactors, however, many nuclear programs have been sitting on shelves for years without generating much action.

Governments are awaiting clearer signals on where electricity markets and power generation technologies are heading and the safety image of nuclear has never recovered from Chernobyl and Fukushima.

Statoil said the competitiveness of nuclear has eroded, and nuclear’s role is being edged out by renewables, although the Norwegian firm said it might be considered reckless to try to marginalise the two options that in many countries have accounted for the bulk of base load electricity supply – coal and nuclear – simultaneously.