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'Tectonic shift' in energy, says BP

AUSTRALIA and India pumping out increasing amounts of coal was not enough to offset global produc...

Anthony Barich

In its latest Statistical Review released overnight, oil super-major BP said last year was one of “tectonic shifts” in global energy production and consumption which have had profound implications for the global fuel mix and for global carbon dioxide emissions.

BP said growth of global primary energy consumption decelerated markedly last year, even though global economic growth was similar to 2013. Energy consumption increased by just 0.9% in 2014, a sharp deceleration over 2013 =(2%) and well below the 10-year average of 2.1%.

Consumption increased for all fuels, reaching record levels for every fuel type except nuclear power, while production increased for all fuels except coal.

Global coal consumption grew by 0.4% last year, well below the 10-year average annual growth of 2.9%. Coal’s share of global primary energy consumption fell to 30%

Coal consumption outside the OECD grew by 1.1%, the weakest growth since 1998, driven by a flattening of Chinese consumption (+0.1%).

India (+11.1%) experienced its largest volumetric increase on record, and the world’s largest volumetric increase.

BP said global coal production fell by 0.7%, with large declines in China (-2.6%, the world’s largest volumetric decline) and Ukraine (-29%) “more than offsetting” large increases in India (+6.4%) and Australia (+4.7%).

For oil, prices have fallen sharply, largely driven by the strength of supply as non-OPEC production grew by a record amount while OPEC maintained its output levels to maintain market share.

Elsewhere, the growth of China’s coal consumption stalled and global natural gas growth was also weak, held back by a mild European winter triggering a sharp fall in consumption.

Renewables were the fastest growing form of energy, accounting for a third of the increase in overall primary energy use during a year in which global primary energy consumption growth slowed. Even so, they accounted for only 3% of primary energy.

Global carbon dioxide emissions from energy use grew by just 0.5%, the weakest since 1998, other than in the immediate aftermath of last decade’s financial crisis.

BP said the slower growth relative to its average over the past 10 years or so was largely attributable to the changing pace and pattern of Chinese economic growth.

Renewable energy sources – in power generation as well as transport – continued to rise last year, reaching a record 3% of global energy consumption, up from 0.9% a decade ago.

Renewable energy used in power generation grew by 12.0%, and renewables accounted for a record 6% of global power generation.

Global biofuels production grew by a below average 7.4% (+144,000 barrels per day).

BP Group chief executive Bob Dudley said that while the “eerie calm” that had characterised energy markets in the few years prior to 2014 came to an abrupt end last year, “we should not be surprised or alarmed”.

“These events may well come to be viewed as symptomatic of a broader shifting of the tectonic plates that make up the energy landscape, with significant developments in both the supply of energy and its demand,” Dudley said.

“Our task as an industry is to meet today’s challenges while continuing to invest to meet tomorrow’s demand, safely and sustainably.”

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