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Hogsback on Australia's looming coal election

THERE has always been an element of politics in the Australian coal industry but Hogsback can't r...

Staff Reporter

Events over the past few days have sharpened the debate about coal with the government seizing on the recent legal setback for the Carmichael project in Queensland as an opportunity to “wedge” the opposition on the question of jobs versus the environment.

It’s an interesting tactic and one which might cause a few difficult moments for the Labor Party which has traditionally been a supporter of coal miners because of their deep roots in the union movement, but has recently seen environmentalists as another source of votes.

In simple terms, and if nothing else politicians are simple people, the argument which will become a rallying cry for the government is job creation.

There will be more to it than that, and the debate will become quite complex, but at the core will be a simple “jobs” message, and it’s simple arguments like that which tend to stick in the hothouse of an election campaign.

The history of the Carmichael project is reasonably well known to people with an interest in Australian coal. It is big, remote, costly, and at current coal prices economically marginal, at best.

Adani Group, the Indian company behind Carmichael, says it is determined to proceed with the development of what could become one of the world’s biggest coal mines because India has a growing appetite for high-quality Australian coal in its power stations.

But what’s made life difficult for Adani is a combination of the low coal price and a determined environmental campaign which has stretched the law to the limit, and perhaps to breaking point with the use of legal loopholes to delay development of the mine.

By resorting to international funding from environmental lobby groups which have no connections to Australia the anti-Carmichael campaigners have been able to delay the project, and undoubtedly plan to continue doing so.

The latest loophole, over whether a government minister correctly assessed the status of a snake and a skink, was the tipping point for many Australians because not only are the animals in question highly unlikely to be driven to extinction by the Carmichael mine their environment is being protected under the terms of the mine’s approval.

It was a bureaucratic blunder in not using the correct form of words which forced Adani to re-submit its plans for Carmichael, triggering a cascade of delays for construction contractors and potentially killing the creation of up to 10,000 jobs.

The Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, has been quick to spot an opportunity to use Carmichael as a wedge to force the Leader of the Opposition, Bill Shorten, to make a decision about whether he is in favour of jobs at Carmichael, or the legal sabotage being used by environmentalists to prevent people from working.

What the government proposes to do is introduce laws which mean the only people who can start a legal action against an approved project must have a direct interest in the case, such as landholders affected by a development.

There are three problems for Abbott in that plan. The first is that the proposed change to the law is unlikely to pass in in the Senate. The second is that another law simply provides a route map for opponents to engage in more delaying tactics, and thirdly there is a fair chance that Adani might put the project in mothballs while the politics are played out.

What interests The Hog is whether a backlash against the proposal to limit international interference in the Australian project development process will worry Abbott, or whether he might event welcome it because it will help raise questions over Shortens position.

There’s no point in exploring all the possible outcomes, or the arguments that are likely to flow from the Carmichael case, because the entire situation is about to become highly political as Australia heads towards an election sometime in the middle of next year.

Abbott will be arguing all the way to polling day that his government is pro-jobs and pro-development.

Shorten will try and claim the same high ground, while also being forced to defend his likely rejection of the legal amendments to allow Carmichael to proceed without the threat of more time-wasting challenges from the environmental movement.

Whether Adani wants to have its proposed project used as a political football is irrelevant because that’s what it’s become, like it or not.

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