In both cases, the coal mines and the car yard, the man doing the selling wore a shiny suit, had slicked-back hair, a pencil-thin moustache, and everything for sale was either (a) a bargain, or (b) the best in its class, or (c) had one previous owner who drove it very carefully.
As most people have at some stage been confronted by a used-car salesman the picture should be fairly clear with older readers able to see a man like Arthur Daley from the Minder television series doing the selling.
The interesting bit about men like Arthur Daley is that everyone knows he is simply there to sell something without caring too much about the quality just so long as it is taken away with no questions asked, and definitely without an after-sales warranty.
Caveat Emptor is the maxim with people like Arthur: “let the buyer beware”
Coal mines are not exactly the same but there are an awful lot of them for sale today and like the cars in Arthur’s yard it’s a case of buyer beware – there might be the odd bargain available but look very carefully before buying.
Good mines being offered at a reasonable price will sell because the new owner should be able to make a profit from day one. Sub-standard mines will not sell.
But, the question which most interests The Hog is knowing precisely what is for sale because like the man in the car yard the people selling coal mines are not being particularly clear about exactly what is for sale.
In the case of Anglo American it is a reasonable assumption that everything on the company’s books is available such is the trouble in which the company finds itself.
Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton are somewhat different, adopting what seems to be a more arrogant stance which involves sending a signal that some coal assets might be for sale but only to an approved buyer.
In a boom it might make sense to appear as a less-than-keen seller in case it encourages bargain hunters keen to beat the price down.
We are not in a boom and sellers are not in charge of the sales process. This is a buyer’s market, a time when people with cash might get a bargain because there are so many assets available that prices only have one way to go, down, and the vendor knows a quick deal might be the best deal.
So, once you understand that the car yard (sorry, coal yard) is full and that there are more assets available than buyers could someone explain the mixed signals coming from companies such as Rio Tinto.
On the one hand Rio Tinto’s chief executive, Sam Walsh, said earlier this month that thermal coal would be part of the world’s energy mix for at least the next 50 years, and then proceeded to talk up the benefits of thermal power as well as praising the quality of the company’s assets.
Rio Tinto’s coal assets in the Hunter Valley of New South Wales were said to be “cash positive but only as a result of a lot of work”, adding a little later in a story carried by The Australian newspaper that coal is a “fundamental part of our business”
If that’s the case, and The Hog is not doubting what Walsh said, why is it widely believed that every coal asset on Rio Tinto’s books is effectively for sale with price the only determining factor.
A few days before the Rio Tinto boss talked enthusiastically about the company’s coal assets another report in the Australian Financial Review newspaper told a different story, one that began with this headline: “BHP and Rio Tinto are quietly exiting coal”
What made the “quiet exit” claim interesting is that it came from two sources, an environmentalist and a fund manager.
Blair Palese from the environmental activist group 350 Australia said: “They, BHP and Rio, have moved away from thermal coal and in doing so have sent a very strong signal to the market.”
Tim Schroeders from Pengana Global Resources Fund said: “Rio Tinto and BHP are still out there flying the flag for coal, but I think they are repositioning behind the scenes”
Indeed!
Like good vendors of pre-loved, second-hand, lightly-driven, one-owner, low-mileage cars the big coal miners are selling whatever they can, and if you ask nicely they’ll toss in floor mats, a steering wheel cover and a tank full of fuel.