However, that will require increased renewable capacity using gas as a balancing fuel for the next 20-40 years.
King sees good opportunities for gas as a transition fuel while renewables and battery technologies develop, because at the moment, while great strides have been made, new forms of energy lack the sustainability, affordability and reliability that customers demand, and as past experience has shown there is no silver bullet for a completely emissions free generation capacity.
“Right now the grid is 99.8% reliable, and I can tell you when those 0.2% don't get their warm showers for 24-48 hours they will let you know,” he told APPEA 2016 delegates on Monday.
Without gas, renewable technologies just aren't good enough to match the energy security offered by gas.
For too long, the world had been sitting on its hands, waiting for a silver bullet to come along to solve the world's energy issues, and that had led to a paralysis more almost 20 years, he said.
Since 2000, the easy steps that could have been taken to begin the widespread energy transition needed have been avoided, such as swapping out coal fired power for gas, which releases half he emissions of coal, and there had been little to no real progress in carbon capture and storage.
Indeed, in Queensland coal-fired power has increased. Origin provides energy to around four million people.
“Work has not taken the easy path over the path of 15 years because of reliability, affordability and sustainability,” he said.
Because the fuel mix does make a difference, he said there should be an immediate push to reduce coal demand and increase gas-fired power, which could support the drive to net zero emissions over the next 20-40 years.
The infrastructure is in place to do that, and there are examples internationally to show what an impact that strategy will have.
The US has increasingly pushed out coal-fired power, reducing emissions, because of the shale gas revolution, and there is now plenty of gas-fired capacity that is running below capacity, and prices are extremely cheap.
In contract, the German push for renewables has seen the nation witness some of the highest energy costs in the OECD, and it has pushed out lower emission nuclear power, and drawn more heavily on its neighbours' coal-fired power.
A similar thing has happened in South Australia.
“There are two different pathways, so fuel substitution using known technologies makes quite a big impact,” King said.
In Australia, as renewables have built up capacity they have started to push out gas-fired power in Australia, but as they grow they tend to “hollow out” cheaper coal as a baseload fuel, because solar works well in the day and wind works well at night, making gas an ideal peaking fuel, he said.
He added that the growth of renewables was inevitable, and the change is global, with around 30 nations now importing LNG to edge out coal and balance out renewable schemes.
“Gas's role will grow with renewables, helping fuel substitution,” King said. “Renewables will edge out coal in Australia, domestic gas demand will be relatively flat, and the rest of the gas will find a home of LNG.”
He believes batteries, while still an exciting option, will require a substantial learning curve and further development, given that in order to achieve anything like the 99.8% reliability a house enjoys today an average home would need a solar and battery system costing around $72,000.
“There's an enormous way to go before batteries will take you where you want to go,” he said.
Gas will continue to be a balancing fuel for decades to come.
How much will be demanded depends on the growth of renewables, and how quickly coal-fired power can be wiped out.
While King thinks it is unlikely any new coal-fired power generation will ever be built in Australia, he also believes there will be no need to build any new gas-fired power plants for at least a decade given the current over-capacity and the demands of the Renewable Energy Target.
