Some things are clear: Malcolm Turnbull’s popularity has collapsed, and the decision to call a double dissolution to clear out the Senate, on the pretext of tackling claims of union corruption, might have been one of the greatest political miscalculations since John Hewson’s astonishingly detailed Fightback lost the Liberal National coalition the ‘unlosable’ election in the early 1990s.
It is too early to say what the impact from the election will be on coal and coal seam gas.
As expected, the Palmer United Party has been obliterated, and in Queensland its vote seems to have returned to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.
One Nation, which could have four Senate spots, is on the record as opposing CSG extraction “until there is substantial evidence that it does not affect people's health, the environment, our farming and water”
That could mean yet another inquiry.
The group’s climate change policy warns of “scare mongering” by scientists and is based around fighting carbon pricing and making biofuels.
It wants to scrap the Renewable Energy Target and withdraw Australia from United Nations agreements such as COP21, and “compensate all residents who have been proven to suffer from Wind Turbine Syndrome”
Anti-CSG campaigner Glenn Lazarus appears to have been dumped from the Senate in Queensland, although that probably has more to do with the stink of the PUP debacle than Lazarus’ work over the past few years, despite Lazarus splitting from PUP some time back.
The Senate is as diverse as ever, and whoever forms government is likely to face an uphill battle passing legislation.
The Greens appear to have picked up more votes overall and while they may have lost one senator. The party’s Adam Bandt has retained his seat in the House of Representatives, and the Greens are in line to pick up perhaps two more lower house seats if everything goes well for them, giving them potential kingmaker status in the parliament.
Bandt is likely to be joined by Indi independent Cathy McGowan; maverick Bob Katter, who wants a referendum on independence in Queensland; Left-leaning Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie; and at least two centrist MPs from the new Nick Xenophon Team Rebekha Sharkie and Andrea Broadfoot.
Bandt has already ruled out working with the coalition, while Wilkie says if Turnbull is returned as PM his government has “no mandate”
Both Labor and the Coalition are neck-and-neck in the lower house, with most pundits saying Turnbull will struggle to achieve a majority government and is likely to need the aid of independents to cling to power.
In the Northern Territory, which will go to the polls again in August, it looks increasingly likely that the NT will enact a ban on fracture simulation, jointing Victoria and New South Wales in cracking down on exploration.
The two NT seats, Lingiari and Solomon, are showing strong swings to the ALP, with the ALP taking almost 60% of the vote with both coalition senators looking likely to be dropped.
The conservative parties enjoyed a good showing in New South Wales and Victorian country areas, while the vote in the CSG affected areas of Queensland is too close to call, although Katter’s Australia Party, which wants to give landholders more power when dealing with explorers, has also been returned.
Financial analysts have warned that Australia is a step closer to losing its vaunted AAA credit rating in the event of a minority government.
“The market doesn't like uncertainty and the election result has delivered that in spades," AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver told Reuters, adding a ratings downgrade appeared likely.
Only 10 nations have the top rating from all three of the major agencies, and losing it would be a blow to confidence and could lead to a rash of downgrades for Australian banks and companies, the opposition Labor Party warned.
