Before assuming that too much of Dryblower’ time has been wasted in the pub, there is method in the madness of suggesting that cows have a role to play in helping shape the future of the mining industry.
The troubles at Ausdrill and Forge, two of the one-time favourites of the mining services world, were the triggers last week for a reaction along the lines of “enough is enough” (said angrily!)
Both companies deeply disappointed their followers, not because they had been having problems with the odd contract, but for the way they were reported.
Rather than informing shareholders as contracts were lost or difficulties encountered, the bad news was bundled into single “big bang” events that knocked the stuffing out of investor confidence.
Ausdrill whacked its shareholders with a statement on Thursday about a significant profit downgrade, bearing the innocuous headline: “Update on operating performance”
Leaving aside the question of why it was not called a downgrade instead of an update, the company confirmed what had been suspected. Profit margins were being squeezed and contracts lost.
What was particularly distressing, from an investor’s perspective, was that the contracts started to drop off in May and did so for several months, leading to the big bang event that carved about 30% off the company’s share price.
Forge is yet to reveal precisely what’s wrong. But there’s big trouble in a number of areas and until management gets a firm grip on the extent of the crisis, trading in its shares will remain suspended.
So much for the bad news. So what about the cows, platinum and China?
While everyone else was moaning about how tough conditions were, Dryblower happened to notice something remarkable about changing habits in China – changes that are boosting the price of platinum and milk.
The maturation of China from a backward, peasant-dominated economy to modern society with sophisticated tastes is changing the way suppliers of raw materials can profit.
Rather than being a place into which tonnes of copper, coal or iron ore are fed to satisfy the demands of a rampant construction sector, there is emerging demand in China for the finer (and fatter) aspects of consumption – which ought to be giving miners a few fresh ideas.
Platinum is the most obvious example of how China is evolving. Diamonds are another.
What platinum and diamonds share is demand from China’s increasingly wealthy middle class for a touch of western sophistication, which is why consumption of platinum in Chinese jewellery has just passed European diesel-engine catalysts as the major market for the metal.
The latest estimate, from ETF Securities, is that more than two million ounces of platinum are being consumed annually in Chinese jewellery whereas European diesel-car makers have dropped from two million ounces to 1.3 million ounces.
Creating a new market for platinum has done wonders for the price of the metal, which has resumed its role as the precious-metal sector leader, overtaking gold.
Milk is enjoying the same benefits of changing Chinese consumer behaviour – with a milk-drinking and cheese-eating habit driving up the price of dairy companies around the world, as well as creating a degree of concern about foreign ownership of farmland and national business champions.
For the mining industry, there’s a clear message in the changes occurring in China. Stop thinking only of the bulk commodities such as coal and iron ore, which have driven the China trade so far, and start thinking about more sophisticated products.
Platinum and diamonds are the hot mineral products currently winning from Chinese demand. Gold, despite its drift into a negative huff, will also re-emerge as a big winner in China.
Perhaps the key point from observing last week’s changes is that investors who have traditionally supported the mining sector, but who have been scorched by stocks such as Ausdrill and Forge, will need a jolly good reason to return.
One way of encouraging them back is to demonstrate that there are new ways of doing business with modernising China, such as re-visiting platinum or diamond exploration projects – or buying a dairy farm.