But Wood Mackenzie expects recent cost over-run disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade.
US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about $US4.72 per tonne on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits.
Senior Wood Mackenzie coal markets analyst Jaime Correal said: “When [the Panama Canal is] completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers.
“The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities.”
The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.