Citing a global M&A upturn and higher business confidence in Australia plus a fall in bankruptcies, MPW said it dusted off its prediction model and screened for potential targets.
“We find historically that takeover targets typically have poor 12-month returns, are cheap and out of favour with analysts but have experienced a turnaround in the shorter term,” MPW said.
“The profile of recent takeover targets [the last 12 months] is similar to our historic findings.”
Senex was the only upstream-related stock out of the eight the prediction model selected, with other notable targets including Whitehaven Coal, Orica, Incitec Pivot and the struggling Ten Network Holdings.
“The anticipated hit rate of forecasting takeovers is quite low, however, the payoff is expected to be high from the takeover premium,” MPW said.
