The group interviewed more than 1600 energy sector participants across more than 70 countries and found 82% believe the world can shift to the use of renewable energy sources by 2050, with almost half believing that target can be achieved by 2030 – assuming there is political will.
DNV’s Beyond integration: three dynamics reshaping renewables and the grid report posed addressed key questions on how to best move forward the integration of renewables into the global electricity grids to ensure the future of electricity.
The survey points to broad global consensus that a renewables based electricity system can be achieved.
Just over 80% of respondents believe that the electricity system can be 70% renewable by 2050. Almost half of them believe this can be achieved in the next 15 years.
Questions included asking respondents to consider a scenario in which renewables account for 70% of power sector generation. How likely did they feel this was to come about? What timeframe might they assign to such a scenario? To whom would the scenario pose challenges? And to whom might it offer opportunities?
The analysis sheds light on the three dynamics reshaping renewables and the grid for the energy transition: convergence of metrics, rebalancing of rules and expansion of horizons.
“DNV GL’s analysis of these findings concludes that the solution for a high renewables future demands a dramatic change in the industry’s approach to the integration of new technology,” DNV CEO energy David Walker said.
“We need to adopt more collaborative approaches and go beyond old metrics, beyond old rules and beyond old silos.
“We need a shift away from a paradigm in which renewables are considered a nuisance to be accommodated to one in which the true potential of renewables in balancing and securing grids is unlocked. The debate needs to move ‘beyond integration’.
“DNV GL is taking the broader view and opening that discussion,” he said.
DNV’s research found new economic metrics must bring together the needs of policymakers and system operators, who place diverging demands on renewable developers.
The data suggests that securing political will depends on affordability, while in a high renewables future developers must also engage with the increasing system operation challenges.
The report found that greater reliance on whole-system assessments of power system costs will allow a more representative picture of the affordability of decisions to be taken. The metric of market value, which encompasses revenue and cost at a system level, will better converge developer incentives with the needs of system operators.
In terms of rebalancing, DNV said developers, independent power producers and original equipment manufacturers are relishing the opportunities brought about by the shift to a high renewables system, while system operators and utilities identify themselves as being challenged by the transition.
New rules will rebalance the opportunities and challenges for developers and system operators.
Grid code refinement to maximise the capabilities of renewables can often deliver substantial system benefit at minimal cost, however, this should be handled carefully in which a heavy-handed regulatory approach should be avoided and market-based solutions are important as well.
Finally, high interest in energy storage, which 66% of respondents select as a top 3 lever for a high renewables future, is an example of the increasingly blurry lines between power, transport and heat.
Meanwhile, respondents’ emphasis on smart grids underscores the role for IT in helping to manage the variability of renewables.
DNV said that where policymakers often see energy in a holistic sense, industry thinking still can be too much focused on the electricity sector alone.
“Here an expansion of horizons is needed, to go beyond old silos and into the ‘internet of energy’, where smarter real-time operational controls are used to coordinate input from distributed sources of supply and demand, which span power, transport and heat,” Walker said.
