There’s no guarantee that what Davis can see is any different to the misleading clues which have triggered false hope in the past.

But when the former boss of Xstrata told a commodities conference in Switzerland on Tuesday that prices were bottoming out and it could be time to start investing in the mining sector there was a buzz of excitement in the air, especially when he singled-out coal as being a potential “buying opportunity”

Of lesser importance to what Davis said were a number of other coal-related developments this week, including a fresh attack on the giant GVK-Hancock Alpha project in Queensland’s Galilee Basin and news that Asciano, the bulk commodity rail business, was seeing an increase in activity rather than an expected decrease.

What those secondary issues signal is that the coal business remains very much alive and well for Asciano as mines pump out high volumes to achieve lower units costs and that the environmental movement remains determined to prevent coal-mine expansion projects which could prove to be big plus for mines already in production.

What’s happening at Alpha and Asciano is nothing compared to what Davis had to say because he has a formidable track record of good timing with investments.

His greatest success was launched during a previous depressed period in the commodity cycle when he put Xstrata on the map some 13 years ago by acquiring the Australian coal interests of Glencore.

It’s history that Glencore then re-acquired the same coal assets by merging with Xstrata but the key to that shuffle by Davis and his one-time close associate, Ivan Glasenberg, is that both men were keen on coal – and might still be keen on coal.

The look back in time to around 2002 when the China construction boom was driving prices for all commodities sharply higher is important because Davis and Glasenberg were two of the biggest beneficiaries thanks to their timely investment in assets such as Australian coal and copper mines.

Conditions today are not the same as 2002. They’re much worse which means, in theory, now could be a good time for someone with access to a pile of cash to snap up a few distressed mining bargains and one of the most obvious places to start is the same place Xstrata started – coal and copper.

Importantly, Davis is a man with cash. He’s sitting on a $US5.6 billion ($A7.24 billion) war chest assembled over the past few years by attracting investment funds and wealthy individuals to put some of their spare capital in his comeback vehicle, X2.

The name itself is another clue to what Davis is planning because X2 is so obviously an attempt to be seen repeating the Xstrata experience of buying cheap and enjoying the uplift from rising commodity prices and assets values.

Unknown, and it is big unknown, is where he will start buying, and while it would be pleasing to think that Davis will start in the same place as 2002 with an early plunge into coal there is no guarantee that will be the case.

All that can be said is that the man who made Xstrata a household name, and fortunes for the people who backed him, is that he has just come very close to calling the bottom of the commodity cycle.

Davis gave his opinion in the form of his own question during an interview with London’s Financial Times newspaper in the Swiss city of Lausanne: “Are we towards the bottom of the market? Yes. Whether we have reached the bottom of the market, I wouldn’t know.”

For a man with his credentials to hint that the painful downward leg of the price cycle is nearing an end is one of the best signs yet that the worst could be over by mid-year, or Christmas at the latest.

Unsaid by Davis was precisely what might be X2’s first investment but he did drop a hint, saying that copper and zinc were attractive assets, and that there were buying opportunities in markets which “people are completely out of love with, such as coal”

He also declined to say when he might move, only that because the bottom of the cycle might be close: “I think this year seems to me a year when deals are done”

All that remains now is see how closely Davis follows the Xstrata template because if he really is seeking to replicate what started in 2002 then coal could be the top of X2’s shopping list.