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CCS not enough to save planet: academy

CAPTURING and sequestering emissions from fossil fuel-based energy sources are helpful but don’t go far enough to mitigate the worst effects of global warming, the Australian Academy of Science said.

Jacqueline Ong

The Academy’s recommendation comes as it called on the federal government to reduce carbon over the next 15 years.

It pointed to replacing fossil fuel-based energies with clean-renewable ones, and electrifying much of the transport system as ways for Australia to achieve this goal.

“Capturing and sequestering the emissions of fossil fuel-based energy sources can achieve some additional limited reductions, although this alone cannot avert the need to decarbonise the energy system,” the Academy said.

“Land-based carbon mitigation options are also insufficient to avert the need to decarbonise the energy system.”

Responding to the federal government's consultation on Australia's post-2020 carbon emissions target, the Academy said Australia should commit to a target of 30% to 40% below 2000 levels for 2030, which would be consistent with the longer-term goal of approaching zero carbon emissions by 2050.

The Academy added that this target would also be in line with the level of global emissions reductions considered necessary to limit future human-induced global warming to not more than 2C above pre-industrial levels.

Australia's current target is to cut emissions by 5% from 2000 levels by 2020 and the Academy's proposed target for 2030 is less than the Climate Change Authority's recommendation of a 40% to 60% cut by the same year.

Fellows of the Academy collaborated with other climate experts to develop the submission and their position on targets was based on scientific work outlining a total global "budget" of carbon emissions.

The Academy pointed to data from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which said to have a greater than two-thirds chance of staying below a global average warming of 2C relative to pre-industrial temperatures, cumulative carbon dioxide emissions must be restricted to less than 790 billion tonnes of carbon, of which 515Bt were already emitted by 2011.

"The remaining quota is equivalent to just 30 years of continued emissions at today's rate and even less than 30 years if emissions continue to rise," the Academy said.

As context, global carbon emissions over the past decade have increased at 2.5% per year.

The IPCC data also estimated that achieving a 66% probability of remaining below the 2C warming target would require global greenhouse gas emissions reductions of 40% to 70% by 2050 compared to 2010 emissions, with emissions approaching zero or even net negative before 2100.

The Academy argued that it was in Australia's interest to encourage other nations to commit to strong greenhouse gas mitigation targets by actively contributing to agreements to limit global emission, particularly as the country has one of the highest per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the world and it was "substantially exposed" to the negative impacts of climate change.

The Academy added that Australia, as a wealthy nation, could be expected to have a higher commitment than poorer nations to mitigate its emissions and approach zero emissions by 2050.

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