On their own it is possible most people missed the positive signs, but taken together it is hard to not feel the gloom of the past few years might be starting to lift.
If in doubt that coal has indeed reached a bottom consider these events:
- global energy research firm, Wood Mackenzie, forecasts that coal will replace oil as the world’s key fuel by 2020
- private equity funds plan a multi-billion plunge into the resources sector, with coal as one of their surprise investment targets
- Rio Tinto opens its Kestrel mine, a small step in offsetting previous closures
- Australia’s government confirms that it will kill the carbon tax, one way or another.
Over time it is events such as that, while probably not having a significant effect on the price of thermal or metallurgical material, are pointers to prices being prevented from falling further.
In reverse order, the government’s promise to abolish the carbon tax is the one hardest to quantify because no-one is quite sure when it will happen. It could potentially take another 12 months if Labor in opposition refuses to change its attitude.
However, the promise to wipe out both the carbon tax and the mining tax (not that anybody paid much) means there is good political news on the way because both steps relieve some of the pressure applied by government on the coal sector.
It is even possible that the government might take a third step and moderate some of the onerous environmental approvals required to mine and transport coal.
Rio Tinto’s Kestrel opening, despite coming with a warning from the company’s energy boss Harry Kenyon-Slaney that tough trading conditions would continue for some time, was still an important event for Australian coal because of the mine’s heavy use of cost-saving automation.
For Australia, with its notoriously high labour costs, the use of computer-controlled equipment that enhances productivity and lowers costs, is a critical step in survival during a period of low coal prices.
The first two items on the earlier list, private equity and Wood Mackenzie, are the most interesting of the good news events of the past week, as well as being something of a surprise.
Private equity, which is emerging as a replacement source of capital for mining in the absence of banks and nervous stock-market investors, has also been seen as preferring metals such as copper and zinc over low-profit coal.
What a surprise to discover that some of the specialist private equity funds, such as New York’s Apollo Global Management, are tipping funds into coal.
There is only one reason why Apollo, the fund provider, would seek coal deals in association with specialist coal-project manager, NRI, and that is a belief that asset values are at rock bottom and now is a good entry time.
The Wood Mackenzie view of global energy appears to support Apollo’s hunt for coal bargains at a time when quitting coal has been more popular than buying in.
While not touching on the question of coal prices the UK-based consulting firm reckons demand from the usual Asian suspects, China and India, will propel coal demand past oil demand over the next seven years.
Wood Mackenzie estimates global coal consumption will rise by 25% by the end of the decade to 4500 million tonnes of oil equivalent thanks to strongly rising demand in Asia and steady demand in the rest of the world.
William Durbin, president of global markets at the consulting firm, said China’s demand for coal would almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel.
“Unlike alternatives, coal is plentiful and affordable,” Durbin said.
In those two words, “plentiful” and “cheap” can be found the real explanation for coal remaining in high demand, if not with a high price.
The cheap aspect means that coal has reinforced its status as the “go to” fuel at a time when the cost of other fuels continues to rise strongly, especially alternatives such as wind and solar.
Plentiful means coal will retain its market share among base-load power generators despite criticism from the environmental lobby.
For Australian coal producers this latest set of developments could signal the return of confidence and stability in the industry.