The report underlines what is at stake for the industries due to a global push for cleaner energy and reduced emissions.
The Kepler Chevreux report was led by Paris-based analyst Mark Lewis, a former head of Deutsche Bank’s carbon and energy team.
The report claims the oil industry has most to lose, with the potential loss of $US19.3 trillion in revenue from 2015 to 2035. The coal industry stands to lose $4.9 trillion, while the gas industry can say goodbye to $4 trillion.
The gas and coal losses will have a profound effect on the Australian market, one of the world’s biggest exporters of LNG and thermal coal.
Kepler Chevreux arrives at its principal conclusions by comparing the predictions included in the International Energy Agency’s “New Policies Scenario” and what would be needed to meet the 450 Scenario, the parts-per-million level viewed as the benchmark for capping global warming to a maximum of 2°C.
Kepler Chevreux says its predictions do not rely on there being a global climate agreement struck in Paris at the end of 2015.
It argues trillions of dollars are still at risk from unilateral and regional action, pollution controls such as those being implemented by China, and the falling of cost of renewables, which it argues, will likely displace more coal, gas and oil production in the future.
