Dickens coined that expression to describe 18th century France as revolution gripped the country and while Australia is not in revolt (well, not yet, anyway) Hogsback can sense a mood of unease as political mischief replaces sensible governance.

Just as Dickens was writing about two very different places in his Tale of Two Cities (London and Paris) so too is Australian coal looking at two different places when it comes to the future: Queensland versus New South Wales.

In Queensland, a pall of uncertainty has descended after the defeat of the pro-mining government of Campbell Newman and its replacement with a Labor government which might, or might not, be pro-mining, or a hung parliament which might, or might not, be pro-mining.

If that sounds confusing that’s because it is. Queensland, home to Australia’s most important coal industry, has just become another state with an unpredictable government that has the potential make life very difficult for the coal industry at a very difficult time.

Across the border in NSW, the coal mining industry has been buoyed by three significant events: a green light for the expansion of the Moolarben mine near Mudgee; a similar green light for the Bengalla mine near Muswellbrook; and the official opening of the Maules Creek mine.

The difference north and south of the border could hardly be more dramatic – celebrations and the sound of champagne corks popping in NSW, a stony silence broken only by threats of more mine closures and project delays in Queensland.

For coal companies exposed to NSW the news could hardly be better. Maules Creek has been the centre of protests dating back years and while it has been in operation for several months the official opening is still an important milestone.

It was also an occasion for the chief executive of Whitehaven Coal to let his hair down a bit and make a number of bold predictions about the future.

According to Paul Flynn the bad times for his company, and possibly for the rest of the Australian coal industry are passing with prices tipped to rise next year and for profits to start replacing losses.

It will not be a return to the boom, but it will be reason to look forward with optimism rather than pessimism.

Flynn reckons the price of thermal coal will probably stay around the $US65 a tonne mark this year, dismissing forecasts of $US55/t as far too “bearish”

“2015 looks like the year balance (in the coal market) is achieved with 2016 a year when there could be a slight shortage,” he said.

Aiding Flynn’s confidence is the continued fall in value of the Australian dollar which is boosting Australian coal’s export competitiveness as well as helping Whitehaven negotiate the refinancing of $1.2 billion in corporate debt.

Queensland coal miners have much less to look forward to as that State’s political turmoil threatens to once again turn coal into a football kicked around as a point-scoring exercise by both sides of the parliament.

The immediate issue is how the new Queensland government, which seems likely to be a Labor-led administration, treats existing mines.

The future, and potentially much bigger issue, is what happens to planned mine developments in regions such as the Galilee Basin where two big Indian-backed projects are supposed to be getting ready for a start on construction.

Michael Roche, head of the Queensland Resources Council, reckons that it will not take much in the way of adverse comments from the new government to unleash a fresh round of mine closures.

“Some miners have put to me that if there was to be an unexpected negative move by the new government, they may find that head office decides that they should opt for the certainty of the cost of a shutdown, rather than the uncertainty of staying in operation,” Roche said.

The reason for that tough line is obvious. An estimated 50% of Queensland coal is being produced at a loss, and about 10% is being produced at a loss of more than $14 a tonne.

In the boardrooms of companies planning to develop new mines in the Galilee the situation is probably worse and, somewhat ironically, easier at the same time.

It is worse because of the need to make a decision about committing billions of dollars towards new mines which will take years to earn a profit – and easier because mothballing those plans in the face of political uncertainty could be the painless decision.

Best of times for NSW. Worst of times for Queensland.