That might be a little above recent Japanese gas prices, but Frost & Sullivan’s analysis is a confidence boost for the African nation and is yet another hurdle to the further expansions of Australian LNG plants.
The global consultancy says LNG export terminals, gas-to-power projects and petrochemical plants are all possible futures for the more than 85 trillion cubic feet that have been found off the African coastline over the past decade.
Eni and Anadarko’s MLNG projects is likely to be just the first, with final investment decisions tipped as early as this year or into early 2016.
Their development will result in the skilling up and development of the local workforce and will act as a catalyst for massive energy and infrastructure opportunities over the next five to 10 years, Frost & Sullivan said.
Anadarko is developing a first phase onshore two-train LNG facility each with a capacity of six million tonnes per annum, for an estimated US$26 billion.
Last month, the company selected a consortium comprising of Chicago Bridge & Iron Company, Chiyoda Corporation and Saipem as EPC contractor for the initial development of the onshore LNG park.
Eni is also looking at building two floating LNG units, as well as hoping to participate in the onshore facility with Anadarko.
According to Eni, the Coral South FLNG project is anticipated to reach a final investment decision in the second half of 2015.
The two oil and gas companies are also anticipating projects such as an urbanisation project around the Mozambican town of Palma, together with an integrated oil and gas logistic services hub in the port city Pemba.
Together, they are expected to accompany the construction of LNG facilities in the Cabo Delgado province – one of the least developed provinces in Mozambique that would provide investment opportunities within the wider oil and gas construction industry.
According to Standard Bank, the LNG project will create up to 700,000 jobs by 2035 if six trains are brought online and there are no construction delays.
Around 15,000 of these jobs will be created by the LNG industry, the rest via multipliers in the economy.
While the will and the resources are in place, Mozambique’s ambitious gas extraction plans hinge on the government establishing a solid framework for those plans to be realised, preferably one that won’t see the goalposts shifted, which is an issue in Ghana’s emerging oil industry on the other side of the continent.
“While addressing regional demand for natural gas would be ideal for Mozambique, cross-border supply agreements might trigger complex security issues,” Frost & Sullivan energy and environmental industry analyst Celine Paton said.
“Moreover, Mozambican gas may have to compete in the long term with Tanzanian gas, as well as potential untapped resources – shale gas, coal-bed methane, and coal, not forgetting the emergence of renewable energies – in southern Africa.”
Tanzania has its own LNG ambitions, but they are considered unlikely to be realised before 2020.
Eni is reportedly looking to sell 15% of its interest in Offshore Area 4 within the Rovuma Basin, which is further out from shore. The buyer, likely a big national oil company, is expected to be the driver for the FLNG developments.
Mozambique is also keen to see energy supply to its domestic markets and to play a role in the Southern African Power Pool, which is currently short of power.