IEEFA says the decline would come about because Coal India and other local miners could double its domestic production of coal and install 175GW of renewable energy and upgrading grid infrastructure.
“Energy Minister Piyush Goyal’s hope for India to cease thermal coal imports is entirely feasible,” the report states.
“In this context, the government of India’s ambition to double Indian domestic coal production to 1500Mtpa by 2021-22 is actually likely to oversupply India with coal by 400Mtpa.
“On this basis, we believe it would be prudent for India to go slow on new thermal power plant additions, lest they end up stranded similar to generator fleets in China, the US and Australia.
“The obstacles are like everything about India: vast, interrelated, and complex. If India is unable to achieve sustained economic grow of 7-8% per annum, it will not need current imported coal levels, and achieving zero thermal coal imports could occur earlier than forecast.
“Likewise, lower than projected growth rates could leave $US100 billion of stranded thermal power plants running at low utilisation rates and delivering continued net losses for shareholders and banks.”
Anti-coal activists scored a major win earlier this month when the federal court overturned the July 2014 federal environmental approval of Adani’s Carmichael coal mine and rail project on what federal Environment Minister Greg Hunt called a “technical matter”
The court found that Hunt had not properly considered advice about two threatened species – the yakka skink and the ornamental snake – when he approved the project last year.
Conservation advice for the Yakka skink – approved by the minister on April 29 last year – identified the main threat to the species as the “continued legacy of past broadscale land clearing and habitat degradation”, with the Brigalow Belt Bioregion particularly modified through agricultural and urban development.
Other threats included inappropriate roadside management, removal of wood debris and rock microhabitat features, ripping of rabbit warrens and predation by feral animals.
The Carmichael mine is now without legal authority to start construction or operate, and Hunt must decide whether or not to approve the mine again, taking into account the conservation advice and any other relevant information.
