MARKETS

'Unprecedented shift' ahead for mining sector

MOODY'S Investors Service has warned this is not a "normal" downturn, as it placed 55 global mini...

Kristie Batten

The list includes BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Vale, Fortescue Metals Group, South32, Alcoa, Norilsk Nickel, Teck Resources, Vedanta Resources, Baosteel Resources, Uranium One, China Minmetals Corporation, Lundin Mining Corporation, and Nyrstar.

Glencore was one of the few majors not included, while Anglo American is already under review.

"Slowing growth in China, which consumes and produces at least half of base metals, and is a material player in the precious metals, iron ore and metallurgical coal markets is weakening demand for these commodities and driving prices to multi-year lows,” Moody’s vice president and senior credit officer Matthew Moore said.

"China’s outsized influence on the commodities market, coupled with the need for significant recalibration of supply to bring the industry back into balance indicates that this is not a normal cyclical downturn, but a fundamental shift that will place an unprecedented level of stress on mining companies."

Gold companies weren’t immune either, with Newcrest Mining, Barrick Gold, AngloGold Ashanti, Newmont Mining Corporation, Gold Fields, Kinross Gold, Goldcorp, Eldorado Gold Corporation, and IAMGOLD.

The potential downgrades are a result of lower price assumptions and a further weakening of credit conditions in the mining sector over the past month, which prompted a “recalibration” of Moody’s global mining portfolio.

The review will consider companies’ assets, cost structure, cashflow, liquidity, and the management’s strategy for combatting the downturn.

Moody’s said the current downturn would mark an “unprecedented shift” for the mining sector.

“Whereas previous downturns have been cyclical, the effect of slowing growth in China indicates a fundamental change that will heighten credit risk for mining companies,” the agency said.

The review is expected to be complete by the end of the quarter, and Moody’s warned it may result in multi-notch downgrades in some cases.

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