Increasing world demand, higher prices and a weak Australian dollar are set to lift Australia's minerals and energy exports in 2000-01.
Commodity exports are expected to increase by 11% next year to a record $80 billion, their second consecutive record, according to the September issue of Australian Commodities, released by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics. Export earnings from the sector are expected to exceed $50 billion for the first time.
"Stocks of a range of commodities are falling to levels last experienced a decade ago, at which time they were associated with sharp increases in world prices," ABARE said. "Earnings are forecast to reach $51.2 billion, up 15% from 1999-2000 and up nearly 50% from just five years ago.
"The combined positive effects of forecast higher average world prices for a range of mineral and energy commodities, increased export volumes and an assumed lower average value of the Australian dollar in 2000-01 underpin the forecast strong increase in export earnings."
Australia's leading commodity export is again expected to be coal, which will increase by nearly 5% to 184 million tonnes.
Earnings from metallurgical coal exports are forecast to rise 6.5% to $5.53 billion in 2000-01 while earnings from thermal coal exports are forecast to rise 9.1% to $3.4 billion.
World trading of metallurgical coal is forecast to rise 0.5% in calendar 2001 to 206.1 million tons, while trade in thermal coal is forecast to jump 6% to 376.5 million tons.
Australia's coal export earnings are expected to rise by 7% to $9 billion on the back of increased export volumes, the weak Australian dollar and higher coal prices.
"Production growth in the coal, uranium and gas industries is expected to be offset by lower output of crude oil and condensate," ABARE said.
