Slattery said Australia was already a superpower in iron ore and metallurgical coal, but the country had to adapt its way of thinking to capture a different prize on offer, in the form of critical minerals like copper and nickel.

"While the resources that have underpinned Australia's prosperity will continue to do so for decades to come, we expect demand for iron ore, coal and natural gas will moderate and decline over time as China moves through its period of steel-intensive development and global decarbonisation plays out," she said.

"So, when we think about critical minerals, it's not just about capturing more opportunity, it's about supporting the diversification, growth and future resilience of the Australian economy."

 

Slattery says energy transition cannot happen without mining

The need for batteries, electric vehicles, wind turbines and electrification infrastructure is creating unprecedented demand for copper and nickel, Slattery said.

Estimates suggest that by 2030, there could be 400 million electric vehicles on the road, up from about 16 million today.

Slattery said building those vehicles could require up to 26 million tonnes of copper and 15Mt of nickel.

"The future won't be gifted to Australia, it can only be achieved with deliberate effort and the right choices," she said.

"To maintain Australia's economic resilience, we will need to step up again and outcompete other nations and we will need the same three factors that got us to this point to take us forward, that is the rocks, the skills and stability for investment."

 

The rocks

While Australia's iron ore and metallurgical coal is commonly found close to the surface in large quantities, minerals like nickel and copper are deeper or more remote and generally deposits are smaller in scale.

This can make them more complex and more expensive per tonne to produce.

"Yes, Australia has many large, high-quality resource endowments," Slattery said.

"But we cannot afford to assume that we will have the same degree of comparative advantage in critical minerals as we have enjoyed in iron ore and metallurgical coal."

 

Investing in people, skills, and technology

Slattery said Australia's knowledge economy had been built up over decades from finding, to building, to producing resources at every point along the value chain.

However, the talent pipeline was drying up, with nearly half of the world's skilled engineering workforce set to reach retirement age over the next decade.

University enrolments were also dropping off as sentiment towards careers in mining declined.

The number of mining engineering graduates in Australia dropped 74% between 2015 and 2022, with the US experiencing a 39% drop over the same period.

Annual apprentice completion was also the lowest it's been for 23 years.

Slattery said coupled with a shrinking talent pool, the cost of labour continued to rise in Australia.

"We are proud to be a high-paying industry, especially when you consider that many of the employment and business opportunities our sector generates are in regional areas however, we need to match that position with sector-leading productivity," she said.

"That's not happening today, in fact labour productivity has declined by 8% while labour costs have doubled."

Slattery said changes to industrial relations policies were of particular concern.

"To be more competitive, we must be more productive," she said.

 

Stability for investment

Slattery said Australia's policy and regulatory stability had made it one of the world's most attractive countries for mining investment but that stability had taken a hit of late.

A report by the Productivity Commission found that Australia's regulatory processes were unduly complex, duplicative, lengthy and uncertain.

"I acknowledge the growing recognition among Australian business and political leaders of the need for deeper and more focussed engagement on how we can capitalise on the massive transformations underway in the global economy," Slattery said.

"I believe the secret sauce should be competitiveness."

Slattery said she was positive about the opportunity and the country's ability to deliver, through a national focus on competitiveness with a shared sense of purpose, co-operation and good will.

"We need to find new ways of doing things and work more closely together across governments, industry and business [because] that's what other countries are doing right now," she said.

"If we want Australia to become a superpower in critical minerals we must, in the national interest, do the same as a matter of urgency."