There is something of a shift happening in the market.
It has long been accepted that electricity demand in South East Asia is on the rise.
It has also been accepted, all though this little piggy thinks the arguments will come thick and fast from the green side, that coal is emerging as the fuel of choice.
What has happened in Australia is its big four banks have gone completely off the coal market.
Add to that Lloyds of London saying it is no longer in the coal game due to the greenhouse risks, and it starts to look a little bleak for those digging up the black stuff.
This is a shame because Australia’s thermal coal is, by and large, a cut above what is available in many other markets.
Indeed the industry has done spectacularly well on that very premise.
Over in South East Asia, Singapore’s top three banks DBS, OCBC and UOB have emerged as major backers of coal projects in the region.
Then there is the Japan-Australia accord struck between Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe.
Abe is keen to promote Australian coal into the region, building on the relationships Japan already has there.
Given the position coal plays in the SE Asian market, Japan reckons there are some good business opportunities.
It is one of the main developers of high-efficiency, low-emissions technologies.
The Japanese obviously want to sell as much of this technology as possible.
If SE Asian countries want to invest in coal-fired power generation, the Japanese want it to be with their HELE technology.
There are obviously emissions benefits to this, although HELE alone is not enough to bring coal down to a similar emissions level with fuels such as gas. Some form of carbon capture and storage has to be brought to bear for that to happen.
There are also financial benefits – both to the coal producers and to the HELE technology makers.
The other side to this though is the potential for Australian miners and contractors to play a bigger role in developing coal deposits in those SE Asian nations.
If the banks will not back developments here but they will in SE Asia, then miners have to go where the finance is.
That could mean a bit of a shift to the Australian mining sector.
There is some good coal to be had there and some good business opportunities for Australian miners.
Indonesia clearly has some good coal fields. It is mostly running surface operations but has certainly indicated an interest in wanting to ramp up its underground mining.
That could be an opportunity Australian underground coal mining experts could exploit.
There has even been an interesting coal find in Papua New Guinea.
Now Hogsback is not saying he is anything approaching an expert on the SE Asian coal market.
His main area of expertise in the region is where to go – and more importantly, where not to go – for a decent whisky or three.
But he does think it will be interesting to see just how this plays out in the coming years.
