The report shows total production of energy in Australia is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6% a year until 20029-30. As the projected growth in non-uranium energy production exceeds that of primary energy consumption, Australia's exportable energy surplus is projected to increase.

The positive projections for black coal production and exports are based on increasing mine and infrastructure capacity in Queensland and New South Wales. While the share of black coal in total energy production is predicted to fall, from 69% in 2005-06 to 60% by 2029-30, black coal exports could increase by as much as 67% over the projection period.

Improvements and additions to the infrastructure surrounding the coal mining industry, such as the 13 million tonne expansion of Newcastle's port coal terminal completed in March last year, are set to have an impact on the growth of the industry. Further additions to Australia's coal export infrastructure are currently underway.

The Blackwater rail system will be upgraded to support increased coal exports through Gladstone, and capacity at the Dalrymple Bay coal terminal near Mackay in Queensland will increase to 68Mt by late 2008.

Major thermal coal projects assumed to commence production over the projection period in Queensland include Rio Tinto's 12Mtpa Clermont project and Ensham Resources' 8Mtpa Ensham Central project.

New South Wales can expect to see major thermal coal projects such as Centennial Coal's 10.5Mtpa Anvil Hill mine, Felix Resources 13Mtpa Moolarben mine, Rio Tinto's 10.5Mtpa Mount Pleasant project and BHP Billiton's 7Mtpa Mount Arthur North project commencing within the projection period.

Some major metallurgical coal projects that are assumed to commence production over the projection period are the Belvedere mine in Queensland, with a capacity of 8-9Mtpa, and the BHP Billiton Mitsui Alliance (BMA) Goonyella project, also in Queensland, with a capacity of 7Mtpa.

With these projects in the works, black coal production is projected to increase by 60% over the outlook period, reaching 13 037 petajoules by 2029-30.