But even though European leaders put together a package to fix the embattled region’s debt crisis, the eurozone is still facing years of very weak growth, he warned.
IHS Global Insight chief Asia economist Rajiv Biswas told the Mongolia Investment Summit the eurozone was the biggest threat facing the global economy over the next two years.
“We do expect that Europe will be in the recession next year – in fact it’s probably already in a recession if you look at the figures,” he said.
“It’s very weak.”
According to IHS projections, the eurozone is facing growth of just 0.3% next year, followed by 1.7% growth in 2013.
The region would face years of very weak growth due to its banks, he said.
Biswas said the US was “sputtering along” and would experience moderate consumer spending growth.
US growth is forecast at 1.4% next year and 2.4% in 2013 and the US dollar is set to remain weak.
The numbers looked much better for the Asia-Pacific region, which Biswas described as resilient due to the continuing growth of China and the emergence of India.
Despite some market concerns, Biswas said China still had good economic indicators.
“We’re still seeing the numbers coming out of China,” he said.
Chinese growth is projected at 8.1% next year and 8.6% in 2013, while India’s growth will be 7.7% next year and 8.6% in 2013.
Biswas said an area demonstrating the key difference between 2009 and 2012 would be Japan.
Japan was hit hard during the global financial crisis but is now the fastest growing company amongst the G7 countries, due to the massive rebuilding operation following March’s earthquake and tsunami.
IHS forecasts Japanese growth of 2.7% in 2012 and 2.8% in 2013.
Biswas said Indonesia would begin to experience rapid growth.
Growth forecasts for the Asia-Pacific region next year were 5.4% and 6% for the year after, while global growth is set to be 3% in 2012 and 3.8% in 2013.
Biswas said commodities shouldn’t fall at the same rates seen during the GFC but forecast lower copper prices for 2012 and 2013.
