Far from Brisbane, where celebrations are continuing after the landslide victory of a pro-development, pro-mining, conservative government, there was a second event that will highlight the advantage of investing in Australian mining over other destinations.

In the Sahel, a vast swath of northern Africa, trouble of the worst kind is brewing with first shocks from the region hitting investors last week, and more certain to come.

On the stock market, shares in companies active in the land-locked country of Mali took a beating thanks to a military coup, and the threat of a counter coup.

Resolute Mining, which operates the Syama mine, fell 12% over the week to $1.79, and Papillon Resources, which had been a star in recent months thanks to discovery news from Mali, dropped by 25% to $1.04. On overseas markets, Randgold Resources, another Mali specialist, fell by 15%.

Mali, unfortunately for true believers in Africa one day becoming a safe place for investors, will not be the only country caught up in a tide of rising violence sweeping across the Sahel, a strip of semi-desert that runs from Mauritania on the Atlantic coast to Sudan on the Red Sea.

It is in this region, which touches countries such as Senegal, Burkina Faso, Niger, northern Nigeria, Chad and Sudan, that an attempted Islamist revolution is brewing. It is a revolution fuelled by weapons “liberated” from the civil war in Libya, and backed by militant Tuareg tribesmen who do not recognise national borders.

Dryblower’ view of Africa has been well documented over the past 30 years of observing and visiting the continent. What is happening in the Sahel falls into a category called “told you so”

The issue is this simple: attractive geology cannot fully counter dreadful social issues, and while the latest coup is confined to Mali, the potential for regional dislocation cannot be easily dismissed.

For investors with an aversion to risk, Africa is returning to its natural state as a no-go zone. There is hardly a country on the continent that is not facing a political/military crisis of some sort, or has embarked on a fresh round of tax hikes and asset expropriation that follows every period of high commodity prices.

It is against this background of rising risk in Africa that Australian mining scored a massive win in Queensland, one of the states leading the biggest mining boom the country has seen. It is, however, a boom threatened by poor decisions at all levels of government.

What happened in Queensland was more than a change of government caused by the political pendulum swinging from left to right. It was a ringing endorsement of the pro-mining policies of conservative parties by voters tired of the left/green alliance that has reduced growth in the country to a slow walk.

It might be premature to predict how the Queensland vote will resonate through the rest of the country but Dryblower is prepared to give it a go. Top of his predictions list is that Australia’s mining tax has just been killed before it is officially born.

Despite passing through Parliament, the tax is not scheduled to start until July 1. That is if it clears the hurdles of a threatened High Court challenge that just became more likely thanks to the political wind of change blowing through Australia.

Opposition to the government led by Prime Minister Julia Gillard, will be emboldened by the Queensland election. No doubt the mining tax is high on the opposition’s hit list. That list, however, will be topped by the even more disliked carbon tax.

For the mining industry in Australia, the next 12-to-18 months hold enormous promise.

Domestically, there will be new-found interest in the industry, which has been forced into the doghouse by the anti-mining policies of the national government, which is today looking to be on its last legs.

Internationally, the threat of civil wars across the Sahel will remind everyone that the lure African geology comes at an enormously high price, and the potential to lose everything when the boys arrive at the mine gate armed to the teeth with Libyan leftovers.

Taxes, of the mining and carbon sort proposed in Australia, can be seen as the cost (not sovereign risk) they really are compared with the risks of investing in Africa.

Today, those taxes and costs have become even less of an issue in Australia thanks to the revolution in Queensland, just as the great African venture of many Australian companies confronts the reality of that famous saying: AWA – the short-hand version of African Wins Again.

This article first appeared in ILN's sister publication MiningNews.net.