It also found development could net the Queensland government $32 billion in taxes and royalties while Queensland real incomes could rise by $28,300 per person.
The report took in a six train, an eight train and a 10 train scenario, and in a move no doubt aimed slyly at NSW legislators, it crunched the numbers on a “reference scenario” where the industry was not allowed to expand beyond current production and no trains were developed.
Under that case, ACIL Tasman said wholesale electricity prices step up sharply in 2012-13 in response to the commencement of carbon emission pricing under the Clean Energy Futures legislation.
Prices then continue to rise in real terms, peaking in 2029–30, before falling as clean coal generating technologies with CCS and geothermal start to enter the market.
The strongest price rises are expected to occur in Queensland where it is tipped to peak at roughly five times current prices, reflecting the rapid rise of wholesale gas prices.
However, under the 10-train scenario average electricity prices over the period 2014-15 to 2034-35 will be 10% lower compared to the reference case.
The report also showed an expected rise in gas-fired electricity generation as more gas comes onto the market, in comparison with the reference case where black-fired coal generation with associated carbon dioxide carbon capture and storage will increasingly be in vogue over the forecast period.
“While the environmental benefit associated with gas being a cleaner energy source is driving the industry’s rapid growth, this report clearly shows the industry will also bring enormous economic benefit in the form of more jobs, higher wages, and downward pressure on electricity prices,” APPEA eastern chief Rick Wilkinson said.
He also couldn't resist having a dig at NSW legislators, who have taken a slow and cautious approach to the development of the state’s CSG resource.
“The report also highlights the great economic divide now developing between Queensland and
NSW, a state facing a looming natural gas shortage despite its very significant gas resources,” he said.
“CSG has the potential to be an economic game changer in NSW but that state’s gas industry risks being left to stagnate while others are powering ahead.”
Only on Tuesday a report carried out by Core Data at the behest of the Australian Energy Market Operator found that there’s enough coal seam and conventional gas to keep both the LNG and domestic markets satisfied through to 2052 – but only if it’s allowed to be developed.
AMEO said while there was a relatively small 19,000 petajoules of uncontracted gas on the market, this had been earmarked for the LNG industry and any new sources of production for domestic use would hinge on the ability for companies to develop the resource.
”These reports provide key information for a booming industry which faces a number of challenges meeting the requirements of local and international markets,” AEMO managing director Matt Zema said.
“Moreover, the analysis assumes that reserves are developed in a timely manner and are available to the market when required. “
Individual CSG companies have also joined the effort to highlight the economic and social benefits of the industry in NSW, with Metgasco and Santos chief amongst the spruikers.
Late last month Metgasco said it may spend up to $1.4 billion on its operations in the Northern Rivers region of New South Wales if its business is allowed to develop at capacity.
Expenditure forecast data provided by Metgasco to Lawrence Consulting suggested if Metgasco was allowed to push ahead with its projects, a total of $8.3 billion could be spent directly within the Australian economy over the next 20 years.
Santos has also joined the effort, also tapping ACIL Tasman to produce a report outlining the opportunity missed if the CSG industry weren’t able to develop in the state.
It predicted a shortfall of up to 50 petajoules per year by 2030 if CSG exploration and development were not encouraged.
However, it said the shortfall could be even higher if gas from the Bass Strait and Cooper Basin, which is currently diverted to NSW, were piped elsewhere.
In particular, it said most of the existing long-term contracts are set to run out between 2015 and 2017. Gas-hungry LNG industries in other states and the decline of coal-fired electricity generation in Victoria due to legislative measures to limit emissions have compounded the issue further.
ACIL Tasman said most of the available reserves in the Cooper Basin had already been contracted, leaving the prospect of NSW importing most of its gas from one source.
It said at the very least this would leave NSW industry and consumers at the mercy of price inflation and at worst raised the spectre of supply disruptions.
Santos had earlier commissioned ACIL Tasman to produce a report outlining the benefits of CSG in NSW, which was subsequently attacked by the Australian Institute for overstating the case, although the Institute’s criticism was subsequently criticised for a lack of comprehension.
You can find a copy of the latest ACIL Tasman report in PDF format here.
This article first appeared in ILN's sister publication EnergyNewsBulletin.net.