The quarterly report was released by the Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics and said the growth in earnings was underpinned by increases in export values forecast for iron ore, gold, thermal coal, LNG, copper and alumina.
In conjunction with an assumed lower value of the Australian dollar against the US dollar, BREE anticipated the value of Australian exports would increase even more.
Export volumes for all major minerals and energy commodities were also expected to grow, with the exception of aluminium.
LNG was forecast to increase by 21%, alumina by 15%, both metallurgical and thermal coal by 13% and both iron ore and copper by 10%.
BREE executive director and chief economist Professor Quentin Grafton said the increase in export volumes across the majority of commodities reflected recent expansions and infrastructure capacity.
“The continued increase in Australia’s minerals and energy export earnings will be underpinned by strong growth in export volumes, particularly for iron ore and LNG following the completion of a number of projects,” Grafton said.
The start-up of Woodside’s Pluto LNG project off the northwest of Western Australia would contribute to increased LNG export forecasts in 2012-13.
Pluto will push Australia’s LNG capacity from around 20 million tonnes to more than 24Mt.
Data in the report revealed Australia’s LNG capacity could exceed 80Mt by the end of the decade.
Through its research, BREE revealed the assumption that economic growth across a number of major economies, including China, would slow in 2012 compared to 2011 before peaking again during 2013.
“Despite the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for some European economies, Australia’s export volumes for most commodities have remained strong throughout 2011-12, while prices for many commodities have remained at elated levels relative to historical norms,” Grafton said.
BREE said for 2012 as a whole, iron ore contract prices were forecast to average around $US136 ($A135.13) per tonne and to moderate at around $131/t in 2013 as a result of increased supply from Australia and Brazil and a moderation of growth in import demand.
The report outlined world steel consumption was forecast to increase by about 4% from 2012 to a total 1.55 billion tonnes.
In light of steel consumption, Chinese imports of Australian iron ore were expected to grow by 4% from 699 million tonnes per annum to 724Mtpa next year.
In terms of gold, the BREE study said gold prices in 2013 would increase by an additional 3% to $1710/t and Australia’s gold mine production was also expected to increase in 2012-13 by 8% to total 283 tonnes.
Marking the largest contribution to the increase was Newcrest’s Cadia East operation increasing capacity by 8 tonnes per annum, followed by the start-up of Millennium Minerals’ Nullagine project and Crocodile Gold’s Cosmo Deeps.
Bucking the trend, copper was forecast to decline in value in the next financial year.
This year, the copper price averaged $8300 a tonne and in 2013 the price was expected to decrease by 3% to $7608 a tonne.
“Growth in world refined copper production is expected to outpace growth in consumption in 2013, placing downward pressure on prices,” the study said.
Despite this, global copper consumption remained strong and Australian copper production was forecast to increase by 15% to 1.1Mtpa, supported by the Cadia East expansion and the start-up of Sandfire Resources’ DeGrussa mine.
Alumina was also expected to experience higher commodity prices combined with strong demand and increased production.
This article first appeared in ILN's sister publication MiningNews.net.
