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Australian hiring pace expected to remain weak

THE quarterly Manpower Group employment survey projects hiring intentions will remain at the weak...

Hannah Vickers
Australian hiring pace expected to remain weak

And the outlook stands at a modest 8% increase, unchanged quarter-on-quarter and six percentage points down year-on-year.

This marks the third consecutive quarter with weak hiring for Australia.

Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast payroll gains in six of the eight regions during the coming quarter.

The most optimistic regional hiring paces are expected in the Northern Territory and Western Australia, both at 15%. In the NT, the outlook marks a five percentage point decline from Q4 2012 and is relatively stable from the previous year. The WA outlook marks a four percentage point drop quarter-over-quarter and a 10 percentage point decline year-over-year.

Job prospects are getting slimmer for the mining and construction sector, with a net employment outlook for the next three months of 0% - the weakest hiring prospects since Q3 2009. This marks an eight percentage point decrease quarter-on-quarter and a steep decline year-over-year of 23 percentage points.

While the resource sector is slowing in some areas due to lower commodity prices and weaker demand from Asia, oil and gas projects continue to grow with increasing employment opportunities at all stages of development.

Demand for key roles, such as skilled technical trades and engineers, will also remain high as many mineral extraction operations move from the establishment and construction phase to the production phase.

The least optimistic, as well as the only negative, regional hiring intentions are reported by employers in the Hobart/Tasmania region with an adjusted net employment outlook of -5%. The outlook remains roughly unchanged quarter-on-quarter, but marks a 12 percentage point decline year-on-year.

The finance, insurance and real estate sector expects the largest growth in the coming quarter with a projected 19% increase. Transportation and utilities are also on the rise in Australia, with a 16% increase expected this quarter, marking a four percentage point increase from the previous year and a five percentage point jump from last quarter.

Public administration and education employers report the weakest – and first negative – hiring intentions since the survey began in Q3 2003. Adjusted figures show net employment is expected to drop 3% this quarter, 10 percentage points down quarter-on-quarter and 14 percentage points down year-on-year.

Uncertainty in the global marketplace is causing some employers to hesitate with investments, including investments in talent. More than half of countries surveyed reported a weaker outlook than last year, with just 13 of 42 countries and territories expected to improve or stay stable.

Worldwide hiring expectations are strongest in Taiwan, India, Brazil and Mexico while the weakest numbers are in Greece, Italy, Spain, Slovakia, Slovenia and the Netherlands. According to results, China has the weakest hiring plans in three years and India, while positive, sinks by a considerable margin compared to last year.

The survey also revealed things are looking up in the US and UK, with the strongest net employment outlook in four years.

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