MARKETS

Pot luck for rock kickers

AFTER throwing a few missiles at his hastily sketched 2014 dartboard, the <i>Metal Detective</i> finds thin pickings for downtrodden miners seeking greener pastures. Maybe when the market goes to pot it’s best to reach for the green. <i><b>The Metal Detective,</i> By Stephen Bell</b>

Staff Reporter
Pot luck for rock kickers

Hope is probably the key emotion for rock kickers as the new year dawns … hope that things can’t get much worse after a fairly dismal 2013.

The more optimistic souls may even have faith that things will slowly improve, dragged higher by a steadily improving US economy.

But with most commodities bruised and battered, and money hard to find, where should diggers and dealers be looking to flock in 2014?

Up until 12 months ago, gold was the perennial favourite, now it’s hard to give gold mines away.

Bullion has showed a bit of form lately, but it is nigh on impossible to make profits when gold is trading at $US1200-1300/oz, as Newcrest discovered last year.

MD suspects there will be plenty more asset writedowns this year once global gold miners recalculate their reserves using today’s more modest price levels.

Iron ore, meanwhile, continues to look appealing when China is prepared to pay $A150 a tonne for high-grade dirt dug out of the Pilbara.

In reality, it is a mug’s game for juniors as investors back away from throwing money at expensive, long-dated infrastructure heavy projects.

If you already have an iron ore project, trading it is a good option while prices hold firm.

But Asian buyers are now much more wary of taking on stranded assets in the wake of a litany of discarded port dreams: Oakajee, Anketell Point, Esperance expansion, etc.

Some iron ore juniors are pinning their faith on shipping technology, with Iron Ore Holdings (Buckland), Rutila Resources (Balla Balla) and Centrex (Port Spencer in South Australia) hoping new-generation trans-shipment vessels save the day.

But none are approved and may be years away from proof of concept.

What of the other traditional crowd favourites?

Nickel is a Western Australian mainstay, but the commodity was one of the worst performers last year and few tipsters are expecting a major turnaround in 2014, despite talk of an Indonesian export ban on nickel ores.

Copper? The red metal wasn’t the worst on the London Metals Exchange complex last year, but it remains hard yakka unless you have a DeGrussa in your back pocket.

What of the remainder?

Uranium had a few years in the sun after WA Premier Colin Barnett’s first electoral win in 2008, but the 2011 Fukushima explosion and subsequent price collapse has left yellowcake juniors with zero critical mass.

What’s left? Nearology is usually a neat strategy if your share price requires an urgent massage.

The only problem is we need another Sirius-like discovery to generate the honey pot for the bees to cluster round.

It could be a long wait, judged by the pace of recent significant mineral discoveries.

Maybe it’s time to cash in the chips and migrate into luxury goods or technology.

Going dotcom is, in some ways, a natural fit for explorers looking for opportunities in one of ASX’s best-performed sectors of late – tech stocks.

The late-90s boom provided handsome profits for many internet-focused investors – those who managed to get out before the tech crash of the early 2000s.

MD’ advice is to move quickly if you want to piggyback onto the market’s latest fixation: cleverer and faster mobile technology for our smart phones.

Often the toughest problem in this game is to locate a suitable, and relatively cheap, corporate shell to transact a back-door takeover.

Already we’ve seen Spencer Resources and Minerals Corporation migrate to techno land and the transition could become a mini-stampede this year if share prices hold up.

If dot com sounds too hard, maybe you should consider switching to some of the finer things in life.

Deutsche Bank reports that fine violins have enjoyed a 133% total return since 2007, better than gold (91%) and rare coins (60%).

Even rare stamps and fine wine did well, with gains of 17% and 12% respectively.

Industrial commodities, in contrast fell 20% in the same period.

Maybe the finer things will continue appreciating as China’s new wealthy elite look for ways to flaunt their new-found prosperity.

Meanwhile, recent events in America have MD wondering whether we’d all be better off going for green rather than gold.

Colorado last week became the first US state to sell marijuana for recreational use, prompting frenzied trading as buyers lined up outside 30-odd licensed pot shops.

Colorado's policy is being touted as a springboard for other states in coming years, including Arizona, California, Maine, Massachusetts, Montana and Nevada.

Holy smoke! Forget about digging up gold, America’s green rush is just getting started.

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