MARKETS

The Chinese ram (or possibly goat) speaks

THE blather of so-called financial experts often resembles the bleating of sheep, so the Metal De...

Staff Reporter
The Chinese ram (or possibly goat) speaks

Astrology may be a lot of boloney, but there’s probably hundreds of millions of people who take it at least half-seriously, many of them in China.

And it’s not only the Chinese that have stars in their eyes: shops across Moscow are chock-full of sheep-shaped trinkets and baubles in preparation for China’s Year of the Wood Sheep, also known as a goat or ram, according to the Moscow Times newspaper.

Chinese astrologers tell us that the ram is much more mild-mannered than the tempestuous horse, which possibly caused the stampede in 2014 that pushed iron ore prices off a cliff.

Good riddance to that meddlesome mustang, says MD, who eagerly awaits the horse-sheep changeover due to occur on February 19 – the start of the Chinese new year.

The change should bring a bit of decorum to markets, as people born under the ram are the least likely to make waves: they respect order, pay attention to the rules, and fortune seems to favour them.

“Rams are good-natured and altruistic, however their successes are often limited to money; in family matters they may flounder,” says metaphysicalzone.com.

It leads to an intriguing conundrum for all those impoverished West Perth mining CEOs and stockbroking analysts who’ve been forced to holiday at Rottnest rather than Europe this summer: do I take the money or the wife and kids?

So what does the ram say about commodity markets post-February 19?

After butchering a stray sheep and studying its innards, MD noticed a section of guts that looked remarkably like an ochre-coloured iron ore stockpile.

As the sun beat down, the gut-pile started to shrink (and attract flies).

The prophecy was unambiguous – iron ore prices have bottomed as stockpiles shrink and Chinese steel mills plan for the traditional New Year restocking.

The ram doesn’t speak with forked tongue: at last count China had 99Mt of iron ore on hand at 33 ports across the country, the lowest since February, according to Reuters.

The shrinkage to a two-digit number is cause for celebration in the slimmed-down head offices of WA iron ore miners as they battle their way through $US70/tonne prices.

That’s because the ram says the two Chinese statistics have an inverse relationship – when two-figure stockpile numbers become the norm, three-figure iron ore prices aren’t far off.

Tired of sifting through sheep guts for inspiration, MD returned to the study of sheep figurines for sale in downtown Moscow and noticed that many have a gold tinge.

This could be a favourable portent for battered ASX-listed gold equities, which were down 20-40% last year.

Yet Bell Potter points out that Australian dollar gold prices have been fairly stable, generally in the $A1350 to $1400 range and recently edging closer to $1500/oz.

The broker rams home the point that ASX gold shares are now more appealing to overseas investors, potentially including “mid to large-tier gold companies seeking growth diversification in a stable political region”

An interesting call, given that only last year big North American gold miners Barrick and Newmont were eagerly selling Australian mines, not buying them.

Deutsche Bank, meanwhile, reckons the Australian dollar will tumble to US70c by 2016, creating a nice tailwind for cost-cutting miners – already benefiting from low oil prices and shrinking wage bills.

Large open pit producers and downstream processors are the most exposed to this trend, with DB mentioning Alumina, Oz Minerals, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Whitehaven Coal, Independence Group and Regis Resources.

Of course, forecasting currency rates (or commodity prices) is better left to registered astrologers than investment banks or stockbrokers.

MD was surprised to learn that even some economists seem to agree: “What is the direction of the Australian dollar over the next month? I don't know – nobody knows,” says Sam Wylie, an associate professor at the Melbourne Business School. (Presumably Wylie excludes the ram and other licensed oracles from this bunch of nobodies).

“Over the short term, measured in months, the best model of the path of the currency is a random walk,” he adds in his fortnightly finance newsletter.

Wylie warns investors that, while commentators or financial advisers often speak as if they know what will happen to the dollar, they are probably as clueless as the rest of us.

“Pseudo experts have to express strong opinions, because they don't have anything else, and expression of certainty is often mistaken for expert knowledge … don't be fooled by that type of baloney and definitely don't pay anyone for it.”

Ram-worshipping MD couldn’t have said it better himself.

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