In Burkina, the damaging “popular uprising” of October 2014 which played out in capital city Ougadougou and led to the downfall of long-serving President Blaise Compaore appears to have been largely forgotten.
It is back to business in the “Land of the Upright Men” as the country, currently being led by interim President Michel Kafando, will go to the polls on October 11. Neither Kafando nor Lieutenant Colonel Isaac – who initially took charge after the popular uprising which ousted Compaore – are eligible to contest the election.
The national transitional council has, in the meantime, approved anti-corruption legislation in order to comply with the first of two World Bank requirements for $US100 million in budget support.
The second part of the World Bank check list is the introduction of a new mining code, which was adopted earlier this month, updating the Mining Act of 2003. This will be welcomed by the forces which overthrew Compaore, as it had been argued that revenues from the strong upsurge in mining in the west African nation had not returned benefits to state and local communities.
The new code has been on the drawing board since 2012 with investors and authorities at odds over its contents. Mining companies – mainly gold exploration and development firms – have argued that the some of the provisions of the original code should be softened or dropped because of the weaker gold price environment, which has led to a fall in exploration expenditure.
Burkina Faso is Africa’s fourth biggest producer of gold, with eight mines developed over the past five years, with more in the pipeline including Australian-based Gryphon Minerals’ Banfora scheduled to produce first gold in early 2016.
But Burkina Faso also rates among the poorest countries in the world and close attention will now focus on whether the implementation of the mining code works to the satisfaction of both government and foreign direct investors.
If industry is not happy with the new code, Burkina will find itself in a similar situation to Zambia, which recently felt the backlash of a very displeased investment community following the radical rise of its royalty rate.
Barrick was the first to move, placing its already-struggling Lumwana copper mine in the North West Province on care and maintenance.
It was the government of the late President Michael Sata which lumped Zambia with the increased royalty impost which will continue to cause capital flight unless it is amended.
Sata was not alive to see the damage his royalty rise caused to the economic backbone of his country, the mining industry. And after his death, there was hope that economist and businessman Hakainde Hichelema would become Zambia’s fifth president in the election held in January.
It was not to be. The pragmatic Hichelema lost out by fewer than 28,000 votes, or just 1.6%, to the ruling Patriotic Front’s Edgar Lungu.
It would be polite to say that President Lungu has inherited a country in a mess as a result of the negligently expedient rule of Sata – and, like Sata, there are questions about Lungu’s ability to pull Zambia out of the trench in which it currently finds itself.
Lungu has held several ministerial portfolios, the most recent of which was justice, so there’s no question about the political nous and acumen he will bring to the presidency. What is of more concern is his health, as there is continued speculation about his sobriety – a charge which Lungu fiercely denies.
But this month the 58-year-old President Lungu had to be rushed to hospital in South Africa where he underwent surgery “to correct a narrowing of the oesophagus” after collapsing in capital city Lusaka during an International Women’s Day event.
Zambia has had just four presidents since its independence from Britain in 1964, and two of them – Levy Mwanawasa and Michael Sata – died in office.
Lungu has from now until Zambia’s next election, scheduled for September 2016, to demonstrate whether he can identify the remedy the ills – particularly in terms of mining royalties – of this potentially bountiful country.
If he does not, and the capital flight continues while Zambians continue to become poorer by the day, perhaps it will prompt the electorate to switch allegiance to Hichelema and his United Party for National Development.
Right now, there are few other leaders in Zambia, apart from Hichelema, who have shown the understanding of the country’s difficult position – or displayed the vision to resolve the challenges.