Potential high volume, low margin mines, which are more distant from export terminals, are potentially in greatest jeopardy from emissions pricing, according to a study of 82 coal mines based on a carbon tax starting at $20 per tonne and rising 4% each year.
If the tax rises to more than $50/t, 18 mines could close.
The effect of the tax on the broader economy would be even greater, especially in the regions, with conservative estimates of 14,100 jobs foregone in 2020/21 from applying emissions pricing to existing coal mines.
Export coal sales foregone in 2020/21 are estimated to be around $3.64 billion.
The total loss of coal sales over the period from implementation of emissions pricing to the end of 2020/21 would exceed $22 billion.
These estimates include only losses from premature mine closures. They did not include employment losses from operating economies made within surviving mines, ACA executive director Ralph Hillman said.
"This additional impost of the carbon tax raises those costs to the point where a number of mines become unprofitable and therefore are at risk of premature closure," he reportedly told the ABC.
Compensation was not factored into the calculations because it had not been determined yet.
Conservative estimates of employment losses from applying emissions pricing to potential coal mining developments would be the elimination of 25-37% of potential jobs. These estimates relate to employment lost in mines rendered unviable by emissions pricing. They do not include job losses from changes to production rates in response to emissions pricing imposts.
