Driven by rises in steam coal export demand, the US industry could export as much as 125-133 million tons by the end of the year, well exceeding the record of 113Mt set in more than three decades ago in 1981.
The EIA said the first half of the year was very strong for exports, and the 67Mt leaving the nation’s shores surpassed volumes records as far back as 1949. It said the decade prior to 2011 averaged 56Mtpa.
“If exports continue at their current pace, the US will export 133 million tons this year, although EIA forecasts exports of 125 million tons,” officials said.
“The global economy has been slowing, especially in China, the world's largest coal consumer by a large margin. As a result, EIA does not expect coal exports to continue at their current pace.”
Total US coal exports, which includes both bituminous and metallurgical tonnage, were nearly 13Mt in June, beating an April record by 200,000t. It was also the third month in a row that the US had more than 12Mt shipped.
However, the latest available data to the agency – that for August –indicated there was some weakening in demand globally, officials said.
In fact, levels dropped 2Mt from the June levels.
“While declines in export levels inject some uncertainty, exports remain elevated with lower August exports still 13% above August 2011 levels,” the EIA said.
“As a result, 2012 is still expected to surpass the 1981 record.”
In recent years, exports from the US had actually been in a tailspin of sorts, with drops through the 1990s that hit a low point in 2002 when the country totaled just 40Mt. That was the lowest figure since 1961, agency officials noted.
In 2011, the trajectory changed when coal exports revealed a 171% spike from 2002. It said only a short interruption was realized amid the world’s recession.
“Export growth accelerated after the recession, with consecutive post-2009 growth of more than 20Mtpa, a level of growth not seen since the 1979 to 1981 export boom,” the EIA said in its outlook.
“Current data for 2012 through August shows coal exports are growing even faster and should more than double 2009 export levels, buoyed by growth in US steam coal.”
Met and thermal coal have often had vastly different outlooks since the market tanked, with met coal seeing a fair majority of this year’s production slices at the nation’s mines.
Despite the role that may or may not play in the overall picture with regards to exports, the EIA pointed out in its outlook projections that there were likely to be some significant increases in steam coal after years of met coal exports being a demand victor.
“While met coal has typically held a larger market share of US exports than steam (its share remained relatively close to 55% over a prolonged period), between 2009 and 2011 met coal averaged two-thirds of US coal exports,” the EIA said.
“However, current data through August 2012 shows that steam coal exports are rebounding, growing about 50% in 2011 and on track to grow another 50% in 2012.
“In a near mirror image of 2010, steam exports are now driving US coal export growth, accounting for 95% of the annualized 2012 export increase — pushing coal exports to likely reach their highest level on record this year.”
According to agency data released earlier this month in the EIA short-term energy and winter fuels outlook, 2013 exports are projected to be approximately 107Mt, 68Mt met and 40Mt steam. That is down from 75Mt and 51Mt, respectively.
