The ICE Futures Index for Newcastle-exported and April-delivered thermal coal hit $55.80/t FOB on Tuesday with this down 11% on the March-delivered price of $62.75/t FOB.
The tumble from last month has also made the Newcastle index $2/t cheaper than the corresponding price from South Africa’s Richards Bay Coal Terminal and $2.15/t cheaper than the Rotterdam index used to gauge the Ukraine conflict-impacted European market.
While Newcastle-exported thermal coal has traditionally fetched a premium, ICE Futures data has also forecast its price to average below the RBCT and Rotterdam indices for the 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 calendar years.
Macquarie Wealth Management was previously expecting Newcastle, RBCT and European spot prices to be lower than $60/t over the coming months.
This is despite Macquarie’s $70/t annual benchmark forecast for Australian thermal coal exports to Japanese utilities for the Japanese financial year starting April with negotiations still underway.
“Producers who are not exposed to the certainty of the Japanese contract will be under increasing margin pressure through the remainder of 2015.” Macquarie warned earlier this month.
In a report released this week, Macquarie’s China-based coal analyst Chen Shao had a bleak outlook for the nation’s domestic thermal coal market in the June quarter.
“Weak power demand, a lower cost curve and a build-up of mine inventory have continued to suppress prices,” he wrote.
“Historical patterns suggest that thermal coal prices are likely to stay flat at best in 2Q, with the high inventory at both mines and power plants adding downside risk.”
The weak Chinese market is of concern to Australian coal producers. A surge of Chinese coal imports helped lift coal prices and Australia’s coal industry out of a downturn in 2009.
