Despite robust export volumes, the government’s commodities forecaster predicts the value of the country’s export earnings will tip in at $A177 billion, down from $186 billion forecast in March and $189 billion in the September 2012 quarter.
According to BREE’s June Resources and Energy Quarterly, large fluctuations in equity and foreign exchange markets coupled with weakening sentiment have negatively affected the price of some resource commodities.
“The largest fall was in the price of gold, which declined in value by 12 per cent in one week during April,” BREE executive director and chief economist Quentin Grafton said.
Iron ore, Australia’s largest export commodity, is set to decrease the most in export value, dropping from $62.7 billion in 2011-12 to $57.3 billion in 2012-13.
Export values for thermal coal are expected to total $16.2 billion, down from $17.1 billion. However, a weaker met coal price is tipped to weigh heavily on the commodity’s export earnings at $21.7 billion, versus $30.7 billion in the prior year.
BREE expects Australia’s flourishing LNG sector to defy the downward trend, with export earnings totalling $15.2 billion for 2012-13, up from $11.9 billion year on year.
The value of gold exports will be slightly lower at $14.9 billion, down from $15.5 billion.
The estimated reduced export earnings from Australia’s resources are despite the recent weakness in the Australian dollar, underpinned by evidence of softening in the Chinese economy and concerns of the US Federal Reserve tapering its stimulus program.
“While a depreciating dollar increases the Australian dollar of resources and energy exports dominated in US dollars, this was more than offset in 2013 by weakening commodity prices,” Grafton said.
BREE said the price of gold for 2013 would average about $US1444 per ounce, down 13% from 2012. It said it would further decrease 7% in 2014 to average $1340/oz, as the appeal of gold as an investment diminished compared with other asset classes.
Meanwhile, the iron ore spot price for 2013 is expected to average $117 per tonne.
While 2013 may not be one for industry to celebrate, BREE is much more bullish about the year ahead, with value of resources and energy exports forecast to increase about 11% to $A197 billion in 2013-14.
BREE said small decreases in the value of uranium, aluminium and gold export earnings will be more than offset by large gains in alumina, zinc, iron ore, LNG, thermal coal, met coal and oil.
Metal and other mineral exports are forecast to increase by 14% to $120.2 billion, while energy commodity export earnings are tipped to climb 10% to $77.7 billion
“Over the outlook period, energy and mineral commodity exports are projected to remain robust, largely driven by significant increases in iron ore, coal and LNG exports,” BREE said.
Meanwhile, Australian mine production is forecast to rise 4% in 2013-14 relative to 2012-13.
Production of gas, iron ore and copper (refined output) are forecast to increase by 20%, 13% and 10% respectively.
At the end of May, BREE estimates the stock of investment in committed resources and energy projects remained at about $268 billion.
