“Sideways is the new up” when it comes to share prices at present.
Indeed, the recent carnage of share prices across resource sector companies suggests that the Bradbury principle has now come into effect for many.
What is that exactly? It is that the near-term corporate goal across much of the junior resources world is now all about just staying on your feet.
For anyone unfamiliar with the origin of the concept, the Bradbury principle* originates from the first Australian to win a Winter Olympics gold medal, Steven Bradbury, in 2002.
When all of his more eminent opponents were involved in a last corner pile-up in the speed skating final, the Australian skater, who until then was well off the pace, glided by the on-ice carnage to take out gold.
Bradbury is famous for the gold medal win in the final – but not all readers may be fully aware of the events that led to his progression to that stage.
In the quarter-final, Bradbury was eliminated by finishing third, outside the two semi-final qualification places.
In a stroke of good fortune, however, he was subsequently reinstated when it was determined that one of the qualifiers had obstructed an opponent.
In the Olympics semi-final Bradbury trailed his opponents again – actually in last place – only for three skaters ahead to fall allowing him to qualify for the final by finishing second.
The final itself has received more prominence in the mainstream media – with the last corner pile-up a YouTube favourite.
Bradbury knew he could not match his opponents for speed – and purposely chose to sit back in a safe spot and hope.
The 2013 resources market sees a lot of companies adopting Bradbury tactics.
The choice facing boards is one of pushing ahead – or holding back.
Here are the end-member responses:
Apply the Bradbury principle
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Cut expenditure from boardroom to frontline
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Hibernate
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Preserve cash above all else
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Strengthen your position as others’ cash falls.
Go for broke but risk falling
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Like the shark, keep “swimming” as a means to survive
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Make countercyclical investments in others
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Push ahead with news flow
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Take advantage of a falling dollar
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Trim costs to lift efficiency.
It may be a tough choice to make – with each board’s risk appetite being duly tested – and no doubt the subject of many vibrant debates across the boardrooms of Perth.
So is your company applying the “Bradbury principle” or is it “going for broke”?
My guess is that we are only as yet at quarter-final stage.
Good hunting.
Allan Trench is a Professor at Curtin Graduate School of Business and Research Professor (Value & Risk) at the Centre for Exploration Targeting, University of Western Australia, a non-executive director of several resource sector companies – and the Perth representative for CRU Strategies, a division of independent metals and mining advisory CRU Group (allan.trench@crugroup.com).
*With thanks to an anonymous corporate colleague, institutional investors and directors at several junior miners.